Cam Spencer Brett Wilhelm/NCAA Photos via Getty Images

Purdue vs. UConn player props: Expert pick for Cam Spencer in national championship

Originally posted on Action Network | By Sean Koerner | Last updated 4/8/24

I'm 24-11 and +12.25 units on player props since the beginning of the NCAA Tournament.

Let's end a great tournament on a high note with a player prop pick in the national championship game between Purdue and UConn.

Here's my player prop pick for the Huskies' Cam Spencer.

Purdue vs. UConn

Monday, April 8, 9:20 p.m. ET, TBS
Cam Spencer Under 4.5 Rebounds (+110, DraftKings)

This isn't a prop that would stick out as a play if you were to simply look at Spencer's game log, considering it's a number he's cleared in practically every game since the last solar eclipse.

However, this is a matchup where he has a few factors that will make it much tougher to grab 5+ rebounds.

For one, Purdue is an excellent shooting team, ranking in the top-15 in the country in effective field goal percentage.

Purdue is also an excellent rebounding team, ranking second overall in our team rebound rankings, which factor in strength of schedule.

Finally, Purdue gets to the free-throw line at the 13th-highest rate in the country. That's going to make it even tougher for a player like Spencer to get rebounds considering he likely won't be in position for any potential rebounds at the line.

We are projecting Spencer closer to 3.8 rebounds tonight and have him with a 64% chance to stay under 4.5. Getting +110 here is a nice bonus.