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Nov 5, 2022; Evanston, Illinois, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) runs past Northwestern Wildcats defensive back Cameron Mitchell (2) on the sideline during the second half of the NCAA football game at Ryan Field. Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK

Why C.J. Stroud's bad day at Northwestern won't impact NFL Draft stock

By Eric Smithling | Last updated 11/9/22

C.J. Stroud had a rough day at the office last Saturday. That won't stop him from clocking in on Sundays next year as a top NFL Draft pick.

Against Northwestern, Stroud struggled in terrible conditions. Forty-mile-per-hour winds ripped through the stadium and the passing game reasonably struggled. Stroud finished 10-of-26 for 76 yards.

College Football Playoff's No. 2 Ohio State (9-0, 6-0 in Big Ten) won 21-7 over Northwestern (1-8, 1-5 in Big Ten)-- a team that hasn't won in North America this year. (It's only win was over Nebraska in Ireland.)

Despite being limited because of the weather, Stroud was a difference-maker.

On the Buckeyes' three scoring drives, Stroud came up with big plays each time. On a fourth-and-one in the second quarter, Stroud converted on a 16-yard run. In the third quarter, Stroud completed a 12-yard pass on third-and-11 to keep the scoring drive going.

This is nuts okay CJ Stroud pic.twitter.com/6NDkOJJNBk
— Menace 2 Sports (@Menace2Sports) November 5, 2022

He saved his biggest play for a 44-yard run in the fourth quarter that iced the game by setting Ohio State up at the Northwestern 5-yard line. Stroud rarely acts as a runner, building his name on his ability to make plays from the pocket. With the passing game being a nonstarter due to the conditions, Stroud still proved too difficult to defend.

This season, Stroud is 169-of-249 (67.9 percent) for 2,453 yards and 29 touchdowns with four interceptions. Per ESPN's QBR, Stroud (91.2) ranks as the best quarterback in college football.

Even if he hadn't come up with the clutch plays, one sub-standard game shouldn't tank anyone's draft stock. As Mel Kiper Jr. said before Saturday's Tennessee-Georgia game when asked about its impact on Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker's draft status, one game isn't going to cause a seismic shift.

"Individual games ... don't mean a lot... if you go too high on a guy or too low based on this one big game it usually leads you in bad directions," said Kiper.

Stroud is seen as one of the top eligible quarterbacks for the 2023 NFL Draft. Per Sports Illustrated, he is the top overall QB prospect in the draft. Pro Football Focus projects Stroud to go second overall, behind Alabama QB Bryce Young.

Ohio State has a track record of producing great college quarterbacks that don't translate to the NFL (unless they transfer to LSU in between stops). Justin Fields is slowly changing that narrative after three consecutive impressive starts for the Chicago Bears.

An early knock against Fields has been his struggles against pressure. Per PFF, that shouldn't be a concern for Stroud. "His 13.2 [percent] career pressure-to-sack conversion rate is nearly half of that of Justin Fields' mark coming out of Ohio State," writes Mike Renner and Trevor Sikkema.

The debate between Stroud and Young will be one of the loudest leading into the draft. There's no question both players have the intangibles to become starters in the NFL.

As is often the case with rookie QBs, it will come down to the circumstances and conditions in which they play. Stroud showed last Saturday it might not be pretty, but he can be a winning player in the worst of circumstances.

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