NFL divisional round: Four games, four picks

We've made it to the weekend, and one might argue that this is the greatest NFL weekend of the year. Eight teams, four games, conference championships on the line. We'll be well-covered on both Saturday and Sunday with football on all afternoon and evening, These four bets in your pocket will make it all the more enjoyable.

One bet for all four divisional-round games

Houston +9.5 (-110 FanDuel)

In our opinion, one of these big favorites on Saturday is set for a closer game than the spread indicates, and we'll take our chances on the C.J. Stroud-led Texans being the team to keep it close. Lamar Jackson is 1-3 ATS in the playoffs, and Baltimore hasn't played a competitive game in three weeks, would it be so inconceivable to suggest some rust comes into play? Stroud has looked fantastic and we learned our lesson last week to stop fading this man.

Brandon Aiyuk 100+ yards (+275 DraftKings)

Green Bay's defense definitely has its issues, and a big reason why has been the explosive pass, allowing the eighth-most passes of 20+ yards this year. That has us liking Brandon Aiyuk for a big game here as the clear deep threat on the San Francisco offense. Aiyuk has 100+ yards in five of seven home games this season and when he catches a 20+ yard pass, he's logged 100+ yards in seven of 13 games. These odds offer some nice value if you ask us.

Tampa Bay-Detroit over 48.5 (-110 BetMGM)

Both secondaries have trouble stopping the pass, and both teams are built on their success through the air. We like so many players to step up and hit their props that it's causing us to take a step back and simply realize we should grab points in this one.

Josh Allen TD (-105 Caesars)

Allen has a touchdown in 13 of his past 16 games, including a previous meeting with the Chiefs. We're banking on Allen continuing to lean on his legs like he tends to do in the playoffs, and we lean Buffalo winning here. An Allen TD seems quite tied to that result.

In the news ...

Mike Tomlin set to return as Steelers coach — If there was any doubt, and some did creep in when Mike Tomlin stormed out of a press conference Monday when asked about his contract, there should be no longer. Steelers president Art Rooney has confirmed the plan is to extend Mike Tomlin's contract with the Steelers, and the head coach confirmed as much himself on Thursday. Tomlin has coached Pittsburgh for an astounding 17 seasons, never once having a losing season. The Steelers need to figure out the QB position to get back into Super Bowl relevance, so we'll see what they cook up this offseason.

Toronto's Auston Matthews on pace for goal total not seen in 30 years — Following yesterday's hat trick, Maple Leafs star Auston Matthews now has 37 goals in 42 games. At his current pace, Matthews is on track to score 72 goals across a healthy and full season, the most since Teemu Selanne and Alexander Mogilny both scored 76 goals during the 1992-93 season. Matthews is currently +1200 to win the Hart Trophy for the league's most valuable player. Toronto will need to improve on their current sixth-best record in the East for Matthews to climb up the ranks. Now might be an interesting time to invest.

Bill O'Brien set to join Ohio State as offensive coordinator — Former Penn State head coach and most recently New England's OC, Bill O'Brien is set to take on the same position for the Ohio State Buckeyes in 2024. O'Brien is expected to take play-calling duties off Ryan Day's plate, and it appears transfer Will Howard is one of the favorites to land starting QB duties this coming season. OSU currently owns the second-best odds to win the championship next year at +550.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll. Follow him on Substack: griffybets.substack.com.