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Pictured: Matt Wallace. (Photo by Douglas P. DeFelice/Getty Images)

2024 Byron Nelson pick for Sunday 5/5: Best bet for final round

Originally posted on Action Network | By Spencer Aguiar | Last updated 5/5/24

Taylor Pendrith surged to the top of the leaderboard after his eight-under day Saturday and will hold a one-shot lead over Jake Knapp entering round four.

It has been a back-and-forth tournament because of the easy-scoring nature of TPC Craig Ranch, with 30 rounds already landing six-under or better for the week.

That volatility should keep this event more wide open than most weeks entering Sunday, although the range I would be looking to pinpoint would be the 14-under (or better) golfers. Any deeper than that will possess a considerable ask for that name to win the title.

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

2024 CJ Cup Byron Nelson

Matt Wallace -110 over Vince Whaley (FanDuel)

It is a funny outlook between Matt Wallace and Vince Whaley. While Wallace sits on the leaderboard three strokes above Whaley entering Sunday, Whaley has actually gotten the better of Wallace twice had these two been paired against each other in the same daily matchup.

None of that necessarily means much in terms of a Sunday projection without context to the situation. However, this does feel like a spot where the market is giving Whaley too much respect after lapping the tournament the past two days with his putter, gaining 7.92 strokes to the field.

It is one thing when a player produces this level of overproduction but has a profile that feels ideally suited for the track. I always stress slowing merging in data from a contest over any other route, although this is one of those situations of a bad pre-tournament profile meeting a weak in-tournament manufacturing when we get past his putting returns.

My model placed Whaley 116th overall before a ball was struck Thursday, a number that got stymied even further after ranking 145th for combined long iron play, projected driving and expected putting on a Bentgrass surface. The ball-striking has been marginally better than expected when diving into his 41st-place mark out of 66 qualifying golfers who made the cut, but we are still looking at a golfer who is grading as one of the most flukey producers on the board.

My numbers on Wallace are respectable after he climbed to 17th in this field for his head-to-head grade, and I will attack a profile of Whaley here that ranked outside the top 50 participants for round four.