Braves Slugger Is Primed to Break Out of Slump

The Atlanta Braves have one of the deepest lineups in baseball.

Despite slow starts from the top of their lineup, including reigning National League MVP Ronald Acuña Jr, MLB homer leader Matt Olson and slugger Austin Riley, Atlanta’s sitting on the best winning percentage and most runs per game of any team in baseball. The Braves are getting great contributions from other everyday starters like designated hitter Marcell Ozuna (MLB-best 31 RBIs and NL-best 9 HRs), shortstop Orlando Arcia (team-best nine doubles), and centerfielder Michael Harris II (five stolen bases, team-best 34 hits), as well as catcher Travis d'Arnaud, who has hit five homers in his last six starts.

And there’s hope that one of those three slumping sluggers is about to break out. Third baseman Austin Riley, batting .234 with just two homers in his first 119 plate appearances, has been swinging a hot stick lately but just hasn’t gotten the luck needed for those balls to drop as hits. 

Looking at the last 100 swings for MLB players - not batted balls, just swings - Riley’s in the top ten for total barrels, with seven. (Reminder: A “barrel” is defined as a swing with both the proper launch angle and high exit velocity that leads to home runs.)

And looking at his MLB Statcast page, Riley’s been plagued by some poor luck, as well. His expected stats - what his batting average and slugging should be based solely on the batted balls he’s hit and how similar batted balls perform - are significantly better than his actual stats. Riley’s expected batting average is .249, up fifteen points from his actual .234, while his expected slugging is .457, up a whopping 74 points from his actual .383. 

Riley should have more homers, as well, and we saw an example of that on Sunday afternoon - his 8th inning flyout to left field, going 379 feet, would have been a homer if not for the wind, per the Bally Sports broadcast. (The same thing happened to Matt Olson in the 4th inning, with his shot coming off the bat at 106.6 but flying only 373 feet for a flyout on the warning track because of the brisk wind blowing in off the left field seats).  

And don’t discount the power of ending the homestand on a positive note - Riley got the last at-bat in Sunday’s game, a walkoff single that scored Ronald Acuña Jr. from second base to secure a series win for Atlanta. 

Riley (hilariously) admitted after the game that Chris Sale told him he was hitting too hard, encouraging him to make softer contact when he went up to the plate in extras. (Riley’s game-winning single came off the bat at 80.7 mph.) But Austin admitted to knowing that things would turn around, saying to reporter Wiley Ballard after the game “I’ve had some pretty good at-bats over this series, barrelled some balls, (with) nothing really to show for it.” 

The breakout is coming, maybe as soon as tonight in Seattle.