Diamondbacks 2024 Player Projections: Pavin Smith

His numbers for 2024 don't look all that special, but it is an increase in most categories. He's expected to have much better consistency at the plate, increasing his batting average and slug by 60 or more points. His OPS is expected to skyrocket to around league average, however, he is expected to walk at a much slower rate.

Our playing time estimate allows Smith a decent amount of plate appearances, nearing 300, which would be his most since 2021. ZiPS expects a more solid amount of use, and expects Smith to knock in 54 RBI and hit 12 home runs. However, with the addition of left-handed OF/DH Joc Pederson, Smith will have a difficult time seeing the major league roster and could give way more to Steamer's expectations.

Steamer is significantly less optimistic, expecting just two home runs and six total RBI, but only on 55 plate appearances. It's hard to get an overall picture of what Smith's season could look like with such disparity between projection systems, but our composite projection allows for a slightly below average stat line, which would be a boost from his ineffective 2023. 

However, with the recent addition of left-handed DH/OF Joc Pederson, Smith will have a difficult time seeing the major league roster and could give way more to Steamer's expectations, or be pushed off the roster entirely.

Why Smith might outperform this projection

Smith is a player with plenty of experience. His ability to play multiple defensive spots allows for a potential of more use in 2024, especially if the D-backs decide against rolling with Jake McCarthy as the fourth outfielder. Smith provides value in his ability to give first baseman Christian Walker a day off defensively as well. 

Smith was extremely effective in his Triple-A stint in 2023, slashing .318/.428/.506/.934 in Reno. By all accounts, he is able to hit well for extended periods of time. He doesn't have immense strikeout problems, generally ranking high in whiff rate and chase rate and sitting above league average in strikeout rate. He also walked at an excellent 15.4% in his limited 2023 action.

In 2021, he faced the most major league plate appearances, and put together a solid slash line, going .267/.328/.404/.732 over a workhorse 145 game stretch. Smith has shown that he can be a decently solid bat, and inconsistencies around the 2023 season likely hurt his ability to get into a hitting rhythm.

Considering the projections account for his exceptionally low numbers in previous seasons, a modest slash line for 2024 allows for a very achievable goal when it comes to outperforming. If he can increase his consistency and use his opportunities, he could overcome the modest projections.

Why Smith might underperform this projection

It's likely that Smith won't even be awarded enough opportunity to put together a decent season, with plenty of outfielders on the D-backs active roster and farm system and the Joc Pederson signing.

Smith has consistently struggled since 2021, appearing to only decline in that time. Odds are, a 60 point increase in average and slug will be difficult for him to achieve, especially if he isn't a consistent member of the major league roster.

While he isn't a huge strikeout machine, his walks are likely due for a regression. And since he was a more disciplined hitter, he is another hitter who tended to get caught looking rather than swinging. He provides very little pop for the D-backs, and if that cannot improve, it might be hard to see him slugging near the .400 mark. 

If given significant playing time, it's unlikely to see him sitting as low as his .188/.317/.325 slash of last year, but his improvement could be marginal at best. He's certainly due for a solid season, but his pattern suggests a further descent at worst, and an average season at best. 

His opportunity to gather plate appearances will likely be taken away by the addition of Pederson, barring an injury to one of the left-handed bats in the outfield. It would take significant improvement to make a convincing case that Smith won't remain a "AAAA" player for the Diamondbacks.

Summary

The projections expect Smith to have a more respectable season than he did in 2023. He's primed for a bounce back season, and his ability to play a variety of positions could offer him some opportunity to prove himself, but the underlying numbers have only decreased as time has passed, and it will take a significant jump to see him outperform a modest slash, especially if he is forced to sit in Reno behind Pederson and McCarthy.