Kansas City Royals 2024 Over/Under Regular Season Win Total

The Kansas City Royals will try and see any improvement this season as they anticipate the 2023 season. We’re here to share our MLB odds series and make a Royals over-under regular-season win total prediction for the 2024 season.

The Royals went 56-106 last season, one of their worst seasons ever. Ultimately, this squad is a far cry from the team that won the World Series in 2015. But there were some highlights in what was a sad season.

Bobby Witt Jr. finished with a batting average of .276, 30 home runs, 96 RBIs, 97 runs, and 49 stolen bases. Meanwhile, Dairon Blanco was solid, with a batting average of .258, three home runs, 18 RBIs, 19 runs, and an on-base percentage of .324 through 124 at-bats.

The Royals will not see any new prospects debut for a while this season. Additionally, Kris Bubic is out until at least the All-Star Break. He went 0-2 with a 3.94 ERA through three starts last season. Their other great prospect, Brady Singer, did not have a good season, going 8-11 with a 5.52 ERA through 29 starts. Unbelievably, hitters slugged .287 off him. It caused his ERA to balloon from 3.23 to 5.52.

Hunter Renfroe is the new guy in town. Last season, he finished with a batting average of .233 with 20 home runs, 60 RBIs, and 60 runs over 498 at-bats with the Los Angeles Angels and Cincinnati Reds. The Royals also knew they had to upgrade one of the worst rotations in the league. Therefore, they signed Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo from the San Diego Padres. Wacha went 14-4 with a 3.22 ERA over 24 starts last season with the San Diego Padres. Furthermore, he is 25-6 with a 3.25 ERA over two seasons, thanks to an elite changeup. Lugo went 8-7 with a 3.57 ERA over 26 starts with the Padres.

In addition to the starters, the Royals also signed Will Smith to be their closer. Smith comes in with 113 career saves and a slider that is still effective. However, he went 2-7 with a 4.40 ERA last season with 22 saves through 60 games.

Here are the Win Total MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Royals 2024 Win Total Odds

Over 73.5 Wins: -110

Under 73.5 Wins: -110

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Why Royals Will Win 73.5 Games

Witt is the number one reason the Royals will improve this season. He improved his hard-hit rate last season (45.1 percent) and is an elite baserunner. Now, there is so much possibility for a true breakout season, and he might post career highs. MJ Melendez is another player who can do some damage. Last season, he finished with a batting average of .235, 16 home runs, 56 RBIs, and 65 runs over 533 at-bats. Melendez had a 49.6 percent hard-hit rate with an average velocity of 93.2 MPH.

The pitching staff will get a boost with Wacha and Lugo. Moreover, Cole Ragans will be effective in a full-time role. He went 7-5 with a 3.45 ERA over 12 starts and 29 appearances last season. The Royals officially have three starters that can make some noise. Thus, it will help them snag some more wins.

The Royals will win 74 games because the top half of their rotation will showcase their abilities. Likewise, Witt and Melendez will help the lineup do well.

Why Royals Won’t Win 73.5 Games

The Royals are still a bad team until they can showcase on the field, so it is difficult to have any faith in their abilities. Singer and Jordan Lyles brought this team down so badly. First, Singer struggled often. Lyles finished with a record of 6-17 and a 6.28 ERA over 31 starts. Sadly, these two brought down the bottom half of the rotation to a level that makes it hard to trust them.

The bullpen will still have many issues. Yes, Smith signed, but he is not nearly as good as he once was. He even lost his job last season in Texas to Jose Leclerc. In addition to him, the Royals have James McArthur. But he is not a true option in the back of the bullpen, as he went 1-0 with a 4.63 ERA and four saves.

We have discussed the pitching. Now, we have to look at this bad offense. Besides Witt and Melendez, there is not much else in the lineup. Salvador Perez finished with a batting average of .255 with 23 home runs, 80 RBIs, and 59 runs with a poor on-base percentage of .292. It does not help that he is on a decline.

The Royals will not win 73 games because their rotation still has so many holes. Furthermore, their lineup is weak in so many areas.

Final Royals Over/Under Win Total Prediction

The Royals are in full rebuilding mode. Ultimately, that means they will be struggling for a while and taking some tough losses. They might improve a little this season. Unfortunately, it’s going to be tough for a while as the team tries to find its way. The Royals will endure more issues as they play through this season. They may win 66 games. That seems to be the benchmark.

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Final Royals Over/Under Win Total Prediction: Under 73.5 Wins: -110