Marlins, Jorge Soler have had 'preliminary' extension talks

The Marlins and designated hitter Jorge Soler have held “preliminary” talks about a potential contract extension, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report. Soler’s contract calls for him to earn $12M next year — a number that’ll soon jump to $13M when he tallies his 550th plate appearance — but that’s a player option. Soler, unsurprisingly, is likely to decline that player option and return to the open market if a new deal isn’t reached, per the report.

The 31-year-old Soler is in the midst of a rebound season at the plate, having slashed .241/.328/.516 with 35 home runs in 525 trips to the plate. It’s a stark turnaround from the 2022 season — his first in Miami — during which he batted just .207/.295/.400 during an injury-marred campaign. Soler has slightly improved on his walk rate in ’23 (10.7%), and his strikeout rate has fallen from an ugly 29.4% last year to a more manageable 24.6% in 2023.

Soler’s 91 mph average exit velocity (76th percentile), 15.1% barrel rate (93rd percentile) and 47.5% hard-hit rate (82nd percentile) all lend some credence to his rebound effort at the plate. His 35 home runs tie him with Mookie Betts for fifth in the Majors. He’s held his own against right-handed pitching (.229/.310/.458) and absolutely decimated left-handed opponents (.282/.380/.718). As such, teams that have struggled against southpaws could have a particular interest in Soler this winter.

Between that success at the plate and a woefully thin class of free-agent position players this winter, it’s only logical that Soler would exercise his right to opt back into free agency. His Herculean run with the Braves following a 2021 trade from Kansas City to Atlanta set the stage for Soler to land his current three-year, $36M deal in free agency. And while Soler is now a couple of years older, of course, his 2023 campaign at the plate has been a more consistent and complete year overall than he had in 2021 (.223/.316/.432 between the Royals and Braves).

One potentially complicating factor this time around would be a qualifying offer. Soler was ineligible to receive a QO last time he reached free agency, due to the fact that he was traded midseason. He’ll spend the entire 2023 season with one team and, as a player who hasn’t previously received a QO, will be eligible for one this winter. The QO value figures to increase from last year’s $19.65M, likely surpassing $20M this time around. As is frequently the case, Soler probably won’t match that AAV on a multi-year deal, but he could earn more than double the QO value in guaranteed money on a multi-year deal in free agency.

There will be fewer impact bats available in free agency this offseason than perhaps at any point in recent history. Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger topped the most recent edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, and Jeimer Candelario is having his third strong season in his past four years.

There’s little in the way of productive, prime-aged hitters reaching the market thereafter. Matt Chapman’s bat has cooled considerably since a torrid start to the season. Teoscar Hernandez has had his least productive campaign since 2018. Neither Michael Conforto nor Hunter Renfroe is hitting anywhere close to previous peak levels. Rhys Hoskins tore his ACL in spring training. Justin Turner seems likely to decline his own player option, but he’ll turn 39 this winter. J.D. Martinez is having a strong season but has twice been on the injured list and just turned 36.

Jackson and Mish write that Soler has enjoyed his time in Miami and has an interest in working out a longer-term arrangement. That said, between his age and this year’s production, Soler will have a case as one of the more appealing bats on a thin market. Given his proximity to free agency, it seems unlikely he’d take a substantial discount. The Marlins already outbid the field to sign Soler once, when signing him to his current contract, but it’d not yet clear if they’ll be comfortable putting forth another market-value offer when Soler’s stock is presumably higher than it was last time around.