Matz: A Toronto Blue Jays Qualifying Offer Candidate

On November 3, Steven Matz became a free agent. The Toronto Blue Jays have until Sunday, November 7, to make a Qualifying Offer to him. Should the Blue Jays extend a Qualifying Offer to Matz?

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The Blue Jays acquired Steven Matz from the New York Mets on January 27, 2021, for Josh Winckowski, Yennsy Diaz and Sean Reid-Foley. Matz performed poorly in 2020, as evidenced by his 9.68 ERA and 4^th percentile xERA. The 2020 season did not suggest that Matz would likely receive a Qualifying Offer after the 2021 campaign. However, Matz’s 2021 changed that probability. Let’s examine why the Blue Jays should extend a Qualifying Offer to Matz.

Please note that the 2021 FanGraphs data pertains to starting pitchers with a minimum of 50 innings pitched (180 pitchers). Unless otherwise indicated, FanGraphs is the source of all data.

Standard performance measures

• Matz’s fWAR was 2.8, which was 75th percentile.
• His ERA, FIP and xERA percentile rankings were 63^rd, 71^st and 62^nd, respectively.
• Concerning ERA, Matz’s first-half ERA was 38^th percentile, but 85^th percentile in the second. However, his xERA was 58^th percentile in each half. In other words, bad luck affected his ERA in the April to June period, and good luck helped in the July to October season segment.
• Other than missing 18 days after testing positive for COVID-19, Matz was healthy for the 2021 season.
• Matz was slightly better than the median for the season in terms of K%-BB% (56^th percentile). He was 47^th percentile in K% and 68^th in BB%.
• One area to highlight is that his relative ranking in K% declined from the first half of the season (61^st percentile) but fell to 38^th percentile in the July 1-October 3 period.

Game Score

Game Score is a metric designed to measure the quality of a starter’s outing.

To determine Matz’s consistency, I examined how his Game Scores compared to other starters with similar ERAs. To do so, I selected the five pitchers directly ahead of him in ERA (with a minimum of 21 starts) and five starters directly below him. Please see Table 1 for the results.

In my opinion, Matz was relatively consistent during the 2021 campaign, as evidenced by the fact that 79% of his starts were in the 31-70 Game Score range. Also, of his 29 starts, the average Game Score for his first 14 starts was 51; it was 54 for the final 15 outings. For the season, Matz’s average Game Score was 52; Robbie Ray‘s was 60.

Starter performance levels

Let’s see where Matz slots into a five-man rotation.

For argument’s sake, assume that a #1 starter’s fWAR lies within the 81^st to 100^th percentile of starter fWARs. A #2 starter’s fWAR resides in the 61^st to 80^th percentile, and so on. Also, one can separate other critical metrics into percentile bands for starters. For the 2021 campaign and 2015-2019 seasons, the average breakpoints are as follows:

• The fWAR, ERA, FIP, and xERA breakpoints for a #1 starter are 3.0, 3.44, 3.66 and 3.53, respectively
• The fWAR, ERA, FIP, and xERA breakpoints for a #2 starter are 2.0, 4.00, 4.10 and 4.03, respectively
• The fWAR, ERA, FIP, and xERA breakpoints for a #3 starter are 1.2, 4.51, 4.56 and 4.43, respectively
• The fWAR, ERA, FIP, and xERA breakpoints for a #4 starter are 0.4, 5.23, 5.14 and 4.93, respectively

I obtained the xERA data from Statcast, the other numbers from FanGraphs. The number of starters per Statcast included in a season ranged from a low of 151 (2018) to a high of 158 (2017).

The breakpoints outlined could be a common reference point in discussing whether Starter A is a #1, a #2, etc. Ideally, the more #1s in a rotation, the better.

For the 2021 season, Matz’s fWAR, ERA, FIP and xERA were 2.8, 3.82, 3.79 and 4.06, respectively. In 2021, Matz was a #2 in terms of fWAR, ERA and FIP, and he was a #3 concerning xERA. Given the noted guideline and his consistency and xERA, in my opinion, Matz is a strong #3, at a minimum. His candidacy to receive a Qualifying Offer is looking pretty, pretty, pretty good.

The Qualifying Offer

The Blue Jays have until November 7 to extend a Qualifying Offer to Matz. The deal would be for one season at a salary of $18.4 million. If Matz receives a Qualifying Offer, the possible outcomes are as follows:

• Matz accepts the offer and will be under contract for the 2022 season. Under the current CBA, no team could issue another Qualifying Offer to Matz in the future.
• Matz declines the offer and signs with another team. The Blue Jays would receive a compensation pick, approximately the #70 selection in the 2022 June Amateur Draft.
• He declines the offer but signs a multi-year contract with the Blue Jays. Under the current CBA, the Blue Jays would forfeit their ability to issue a Qualifying Offer to Matz after the conclusion of the 2022 campaign.

Contract estimate

Jon Becker, a Roster Resource Assistant with FanGraphs, has complied a database of contract estimates for the 2022 free agents. Becker estimates that Matz could earn a 3-year, $36 million contract as a free agent, and I have appraised that a 3-year, $39.2 million contract is reasonable. See Table 2 for the calculation.

Suppose that Matz’s projected 2022 1.8 fWAR is realistic. At $8 million per fWAR, Matz could receive a 1-year deal at or near $14.4 million, not the $18.4 million required under the Qualifying Offer. The $4 million difference would be an overpay. However, I would extend the $18.4 million Qualifying Offer to Matz for the following reasons:

• The $4 million can be viewed as an insurance premium to guard against the possibility that the Blue Jays cannot come to terms with Ray or do not acquire a Ray-like starter.
• The Qualifying Offer does not preclude Matz from signing a longer-term contract with the Blue Jays.
• A 2022 fWAR of 2.3 will make Matz’s one-year deal fair value at $18.4 million.

The last word

Matz had a bounce-back season in 2021, and his performance was in-line with a strong #3 or a weak #2 starter. The xERA and FIP metrics indicate that the 2022 season will be another better-than-average campaign for Matz. The Toronto Blue Jays should extend the $18.4 million Qualifying Offer to him because it is a reasonable price to pay by a team with post-season aspirations in 2022.