MLB best bets: Odds, expert picks, predictions for Saturday 5/4

White Sox vs. Cardinals

Saturday, May 4, 2:15 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Under 8 (-105, FanDuel)

By D.J. James

The Chicago White Sox are one of the worst teams in baseball and have very few bright spots. Erick Fedde looks to be one, though. The veteran righty, who won the KBO MVP last year, has shown he can still pitch in MLB.

His ERA is 2.60, with an xERA at 3.20. He limits hard-hit balls and has an above-average strikeout rate and walk rate. Considering the White Sox have one of the worst bullpens, Fedde can reduce the pain of losing a game in the latter innings. He threw 8 1/3 innings in his last appearance against the Tampa Bay Rays.

The White Sox will face Lance Lynn, who has been getting favorable results with a 2.64 ERA against a 4.50 xERA, but the White Sox cannot hit.

Chicago has a 79 wRC+ with a 7.4% walk rate and strikeout rate over 23%. The St. Louis Cardinals are not much better. They have a walk rate of 8.4% and a 24.6% strikeout rate, accompanied by an 89 wRC+.

St. Louis has one of the best bullpens in baseball right now with a 3.32 xFIP and 26% strikeout rate. The Sox are abysmal in relief, but they have a few weapons, like Jordan Leasure and Michael Kopech, who can blow hitters away.

All of these factors should lead to a low-scoring affair in St. Louis. Take the under from 8 to 7.5.

Pick: Under 8 (-105)

Brewers vs. Cubs

Saturday, May 4, 2:20 p.m. ET, MLB.TV
Tobias Myers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115, DraftKings)

By Tony Sartori

Milwaukee hands the ball to right-handed rookie Tobias Myers on Saturday, and he could be a good candidate to back in the strikeout department. Despite struggling in his last start and allowing four runs in five innings, Myers still racked up five strikeouts.

That performance demonstrated that, even during a bad start, he can still eclipse his strikeout total. Once again, his strikeout line is set at 4.5 on Saturday at +115 to the over via DraftKings. That is a particularly good line, as it is 38 cents longer than the rest of the market at the time of writing.

While he's only two starts into his MLB career, Myers has demonstrated an incredible knack for making opposing hitters chase pitches. Entering this matchup, he ranks in the 97th percentile in Chase%.

That is bad news for a Chicago lineup that ranks 19th in the league in K%. That ranking drops even further (21st) when you isolate its performance against right-handed pitching.

Pick: Tobias Myers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115 | Bet to +110)

Mets vs. Rays

Saturday, May 4, 7:15 p.m. ET, FOX
Mets ML (+105, BetRivers)

By Collin Whitchurch

The headliner in this matchup is obviously the debut of Christian Scott. The 24-year-old has shot up the Mets' organizational rankings and top prospect lists across the board following a breakout 2023 season and some solid development across the first month of this season at Triple-A.

I expect Scott to fare relatively well in his debut. The fastball is his bread-and-butter and the true bat-missing pitch in his arsenal, but he's shown gains in three different secondaries — a sweeper, slider and changeup. The one bugaboo has been the long ball, but he'll be fortunate enough to make his first start in a park that is kind to pitchers and against an offense that has struggled in the power department thus far.

All that said, this handicap is more about everything else beyond Scott. While the Rays roughed up Jose Quintana on Friday night, the Mets got through the game without using any of their high-leverage relievers, while the Rays used four important arms to stave off a furious New York comeback.

What's more, New York's bullpen has been one of its bright spots this season, performing like a top-five unit by ERA without a lot of obvious regression on the horizon. Reed Garrett has been a revelation in addition to established arms like Edwin Diaz and Adam Ottavino, so even if the Mets limit Scott to ~five innings or ~80 pitches, there's reason to believe New York can hold the Rays' bats in check in the later innings.

On the flip side, Tampa has has the results and the peripherals of a bottom-five bullpen and used key relievers such as Jason Adam, Kevin Kelly and Shawn Armstrong in Friday's win. Tampa also remains without the injured Pete Fairbanks.

Betting on a debuting pitcher is always a dangerous proposition. The range of outcomes is enormous. But I trust Scott to work his way through the Rays' lineup maybe two times while limiting the damage, and New York has a significant edge on the back end.

I'll back the Mets at even money or better.

Pick: Mets ML (+105 | Bet to +100)