Padres allow Manny Machado's extension deadline to pass after just one perceived lowball offer

Manny Machado gave the Padres a deadline of Feb. 16 to offer him an extension that would’ve meant he avoided free agency at the end of the 2023 season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. According to Acee, the Padres made just one offer to Machado two days prior to his deadline, offering to tack on an extra five years and $105M to his current deal. That would’ve taken their total commitment to Machado to 15 years, $405M. Machado is planning to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, and combining the remaining value of Machado’s contract (five years, $150M from 2024-28) with this new offer would’ve equated to a 10-year, $255M deal.

Machado’s current 10-year, $300M deal runs through the 2028 season, but contains a player opt-out at the end of 2023. Machado confirmed on Friday his intentions to exercise that clause and opt out of the remaining five years, $150M on his deal. That should come as no surprise, as Machado has been one of the game’s best players in recent seasons and, at 30, is both young enough and good enough to earn a long-term deal far surpassing what was remaining on his current contract.

While his 2023 season will naturally play a significant part in Machado’s market next winter, there certainly seems a strong case for him to pick up a bigger deal than the 10-year, $255M deal the Padres have effectively offered him here. Machado’s been worth 11.7 fWAR over the past two seasons and has four career 6+ fWAR seasons. Compare that to his new teammate Xander Bogaerts, who inked an 11-year, $280M deal with San Diego this winter. Bogaerts is a fine player, but he’s been worth 10.5 fWAR over the past two seasons and 2022 was his lone 6+ fWAR season. Of course, fWAR is not the determining factor in contract negotiations, but it serves as a relevant data point to consider why Machado might see himself as worth more on the open market than 10 years, $255M.

Machado’s resume to date is nothing short of stellar. An MVP runner-up in 2022, Machado has six All-Star appearances, five top-five MVP finishes, two Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger to his name thus far. He’s a threat on both sides of the ball, as evidenced by his career 124 wRC+ and 97 defensive runs saved at third base.

With Machado’s deadline now passed, it appears likelier than ever that he’ll hit the open market at the end of the season. As the likely top free agent not named Shohei Ohtani next winter, Machado seems a good chance to become the first player to sign multiple $300M contracts in his career.