UFC Vegas 85 odds, pick & prediction: Roman Dolidze vs. Nassourdine Imavov, Saturday, Feb. 3

Dolidze is the larger and more powerful athlete. He previously competed at light heavyweight and heavyweight in his MMA career whereas Imavov started fighting professionally at welterweight.

Dolidze is also both the more durable fighter and opportunistic finisher. If Dolidze wins this bout, I expect him to win by finish (via knockout or submission) around 80% of the time, compared to 20% by decision.

Conversely, I'd project the splits for Imavov closer to 45% via finish and 55% by decision.

Imavov is the more process-driven fighter. Over 25 minutes, he should land more strikes, complete more takedowns, and spend more time controlling Dolidze than vice versa. Dolidze may land the more individually impactful strikes, but he'll need to cause damage with big moments – like knockdowns – to sway the judges away from Imavov's activity and output.

Dolidze is a "meme machine," a fighter who is often trailing on minutes and lacking in activity – until he creates a GIF-able moment – either on the feet or on the mat to stun an opponent. His finish over Jack Hermansson remains one of the most unique in recent memory.

Tale of the Tape

In his last fight, Dolidze performed better against Marvin Vettori than I expected; however, Imavov is a better defensive striker and a much slicker athlete on the feet than the "Italian Dream" – albeit with less durability. And he's likelier to mix in the wrestling.

Imavov should generally get the better of the striking exchanges unless Dolidze can hurt him on the feet, but in that case, you'd rather have the underdog's finish props than his moneyline.

Dolidze is also happy to accept takedowns (33% defense) and look for sweeps or submissions off his back. Still, from a scoring perspective, the accumulation of top-position time should greatly benefit the favorite.

Imavov looked at the career-best level in his last fight against Chris Curtis, winning the distance striking easily (54-26, including 27-4 on head strikes) – including teep kicks from range and short elbows from the clinch – mixing in takedowns, advancing positions and threatening chokes (before an accidental headbutt).

"The Sniper" looked like a complete fighter – and serious middleweight contender for eight minutes.

However, the cardio dynamic is likely this fight's most interesting – and potentially determinative – aspect.

I would rate the gas tank for either fighter as average – at best – for the division. Both typically tire more quickly, relative to their opponents, the longer that their bouts extend.

However, the five-round experience for Imavov should prove highly beneficial heading into his second main event. Dolidze, who is six years older, has the higher potential to mismanage his gas tank over five rounds.

Dolidze vs. Imavov Pick

I project Nassourdine Imavov as a near 65% favorite (-182 implied odds, or 64.6%) in this matchup and would bet Imavov to -175 (63.6% implied) or better on the moneyline.

I also expect this fight to reach a decision 43% of the time (+135 implied odds) – more often than the betting market suggests (+172 at FanDuel) – which is tied to my projection value that Imavov wins by decision (projected +182, listed +300 at BetRivers). Consider using Imavov's decision prop as a round-robin piece.

If you're backing the underdog, Dolidze, in this fight, I would prefer his odds to win inside the distance instead of his moneyline. Still, I don't project value in that market (projected +253, listed +215).

Lastly, I'm not interested in any live betting angles or late props from Imavov, despite a potential cardio advantage, given Imavov's red flags in that area in past bouts.

The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov (-165 at Caesars)