NBA best bets: 5 expert picks for Thursday, March 14 

Suns vs. Celtics

Thursday, March 14, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Celtics -5.5

By Michael Fiddle

This game will be loaded with star talent, but the gap between these two teams can be found in the depth and role players. The Suns still have yet to find cohesive lineups and lack both point of attack defense and rim protection.

That combination will pose a tough task against a Celtics team that can put Jrue Holiday and Derrick White on Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, while also having Al Horford (and Xavier Tillman) to protect the paint.

Kristaps Porzingis is out for this game, and Jaylen Brown is currently questionable, but the early line movement indicates Brown will be active. Double check for shootaround updates on both sides!

Pick: Celtics -5.5

76ers vs. Bucks

Thursday, March 14, 8 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Kyle Lowry Over 4.5 Assists (-133, Caesars)

By Bryan Fonseca

Kyle Lowry is averaging 5.6 assists per game in nine games on the 76ers. He has started each of his last six games and logged 31.5 minutes per game in that span. In his six starts, he's up to 6.3 assists per contest.

Overall, he's gone over 4.5 assists in six of nine and in all but one start. This is an over worth leaning on if he continues to start and play this frequently at point guard. His distribution is his main attribute at this point since, regarding the scoring, you take what you can get.

Short aging point guards have seen their scoring fall off a cliff this far into their careers, but the assists don't take as much of a hit.

Pick: Kyle Lowry Over 4.5 Assists (-133)

76ers vs. Bucks

Thursday, March 14, 8 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Kyle Lowry Over 4.5 Assists (-133, Caesars)

By Bryan Fonseca

Kyle Lowry is averaging 5.6 assists per game in nine games on the 76ers. He has started each of his last six games and logged 31.5 minutes per game in that span. In his six starts, he's up to 6.3 assists per contest.

Overall, he's gone over 4.5 assists in six of nine and in all but one start. This is an over worth leaning on if he continues to start and play this frequently at point guard. His distribution is his main attribute at this point since, regarding the scoring, you take what you can get.

Short aging point guards have seen their scoring fall off a cliff this far into their careers, but the assists don't take as much of a hit.

Pick: Kyle Lowry Over 4.5 Assists (-133)

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Mavericks vs. Thunder

Thursday, March 14, 10 p.m. ET, TNT
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Points (-115, Bet365)

By Joe Dellera

The Oklahoma City Thunder host the Dallas Mavericks in a nationally televised game, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will shine brightest tonight.

SGA has been incredible this season and is entrenched in the MVP conversation while averaging 31.1 points per game as he has led the Thunder to a top seed in the Western Conference.

His points prop is set at 30.5 tonight, but he has exceeded that mark in 67% of games this season and should clear it again tonight. Although he scored below 30 points in both prior games against Dallas this season, both games were on the road where he does average about a point fewer per game.

SGA is ultra consistent, and both teams play at a top-10 Pace in the league. There should be plenty of possessions tonight, and if Luka Doncic is unable to go, that should lighten any defensive load SGA has to carry.

Pick: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 30.5 Points (-115)

Knicks vs. Trail Blazers

Thursday, March 14, 10 p.m. ET, NBA League Pass
Josh Hart Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

The Knicks lost Julius Randle on Jan. 27, and since then, their collection of role players has had to step forward to shoulder the statistical load.

Josh Hart has stepped up the most as he’s averaging 13.4 points, 11.0 rebounds and 5.8 assists over a 19-game sample size since January 29th. He has also exceeded this line of 26.5 PRA in 14 of those 19 contests.

Hart's really surging lately, going over 26.5 PRA in all but one of his last 10. He's rolling, he's playing the team that traded him to New York, and he honestly deserves a smaller sprinkle on a double-double (at +135) of which he has 10 in 19 games. It’s also worth a sprinkle at +2000 for him to record a triple-double; he has four triple-doubles in his career, all in the last 19 games.

Pick: Josh Hart Over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-115)

Knicks vs. Trail Blazers

OG Anunoby Over 12.5 Points (-125, DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Knicks head to Portland to take on the Trail Blazers tonight, and I’m looking to OG Anunoby to have another impactful game after his return from elbow surgery.

In his first game back, Anunoby played 29 minutes and scored 14 points on 6/11 field goal attempts. He was immediately impactful with a +28 +/- as the Knicks are now 15-2 in the games he has played.

This matchup against the Blazers is fairly soft. Since the All-Star Break, the Blazers are 23rd in Net Rating (-3.4) and 19th in Defensive Rating (113.9).

They’ve struggled all season, and even though they have been slightly better defensively after the All-Star Break, they still are a poor defensive team that is allowing opponents a 56.7% eFG%, the fourth-highest mark in the NBA. Opponents are getting to the rim with ease and are shooting a blistering 39.7% from 3.

In his time with the Knicks, Anunoby’s primary scoring areas have been at the rim and from 3, especially the corner. Given the weaknesses in Portland’s shot profile allowed, Anunoby should thrive tonight. He’s exceeded this line of 12.5 points in seven of his last 10 games alongside Jalen Brunson while averaging 15.9 points per game.

Additionally, in the one game he played against the Trail Blazers with the Knicks on January 9th, he scored 23 points with four 3-pointers.

Pick: OG Anunoby Over 12.5 Points (-125)