2024 offseason primer: Is Baker Mayfield really the Buccaneers franchise QB?

When he signed with the team, few were likely predicting the kind of season quarterback Baker Mayfield would produce while leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8) to the postseason.

The 28-year-old signal-caller finished seventh in the NFL in touchdowns (28), ninth in passing yards (4,044) and 10th in passer rating (94.6) en route to his first Pro Bowl and second career playoff win as he helped drive the Bucs to the NFC divisional round, where they were eliminated by the Detroit Lions.

Now the Bucs have to determine whether Mayfield’s career year was a one-off or if he really is a borderline top-10 quarterback. And if he is, whether he will still be that kind of player without his top receiver Mike Evans, who the team may not be able to re-sign.

Here’s what you need to know about Tampa Bay’s offseason:

PROJECTED 2024 CAP SPACE: $37.6M (13th-most in NFL)

FREE AGENTS | Offense: QB Baker Mayfield; RB Chase Edmonds; WR Mike Evans and Deven Thompkins; TE David Wells; OTs Justin Skule and Brandon Walton; OGs Aaron Stinnie and Nick Leverett; Long snapper Zach Triner

Defense: DE William Gholston; DT Greg Gaines; LBs Devin White, Lavonte David and Cam Gill; CB Dee Delaney; Safeties Antoine Winfield Jr. and Ryan Neal

Special teams: Kicker Chase McLaughlin

Outlook: Mayfield’s contract obviously is the team’s No. 1 priority. Spotrac projects his market value around $27.1M per year, so if the team does agree to terms with him, he will likely take a large chunk of its available cap space. Evans needs a new contract, too, and he won’t be cheap after 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons. His projected market value is $23.8M per year, meaning it’s unlikely both he and Mayfield can be retained.

In addition to the two big offensive stars, White and Winfield Jr. are key pieces of Tampa’s defense. Both are considered among the top players at their respective positions, but the Bucs may just have to resort to drafting their cheaper, younger replacements in April.

2024 DRAFT PICKS: Round 1 (No. 26 overall) | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Round 6 | Round 7

TOP DRAFT NEEDS (in order): WR, CB, Edge-rusher, S, TE — If Evans does, indeed, leave via free agency, it would surprise no one if the Buccaneers drafted his successor with the 26th overall pick. LSU’s Brian Thomas Jr. could fill Evans’ role as a jump-ball specialist. Both are similar in size – Evans measures 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds, Thomas Jr. 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds – and both win a good amount of contested catches.

If Winfield Jr. is lost in free agency, then perhaps finding another safety like Washington State’s Jaden Hicks or Miami’s Kamren Kinchens to take his place is the way to go to help keep the Bucs secondary from becoming a liability.

DRAFT PROSPECTS TO WATCH: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU; Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon; Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia; Khyree Jackson, CB, Oregon; Ennis Rakestraw, CB, Missouri; T.J. Tampa, CB, Iowa State; Chris Braswell, Edge, Alabama; Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn State; Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri; Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota; Kamren Kinchens, S, Miami; Jaden Hicks, S, Washington State; Cade Stover, TE, Ohio State; Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas

THREE 2024 STORYLINES TO WATCH:

• Do the Bucs commit to Mayfield as their long-term answer at QB?
• Does Tampa re-sign Evans or draft his replacement in Round 1?
• Does the team have enough money to keep its core intact?