Broncos make major change at QB

The Broncos signed Wilson to a five-year, $245M extension last summer; that deal came with $124M fully guaranteed. The team had Wilson on a Seahawks-constructed contract ($35M per year) through 2024, but it wanted to beat this year’s extension surge, leading to the $49M-AAV re-up. That turned out to be the wrong play, as Wilson — even considering this year’s improvement — has not moved the needle for a Broncos team that has not found an upper-crust replacement for Peyton Manning.

The Broncos can protect themselves against a $37M guarantee (Wilson’s 2025 base salary) vesting in 2024, but the team cutting Wilson would create a staggering dead-money total. Even if the Broncos cut bait with a post-June 1 designation — which would assuredly be the move if they move on in 2024 — they would take on $35M in dead money next year. That would approach a record in itself, but this move would also bring a $49.6M dead-money blow for 2025. Considering no single player has brought a dead-money hit beyond $41M, the Broncos would be sailing into uncharted waters — a two-offseason dead-cap total of $84.6M associated with Wilson’s contract — if they cut their top quarterback next year.

This scenario is eerily similar to what the Raiders encountered with Derek Carr. Once again, Stidham is the player who would move into the starting lineup in the event of a protection-based benching. Deciding early to bail on the Carr extension that included a February 2023 guarantee vesting date, the Raiders parked Carr on the bench — though, he left the team to avoid becoming a distraction — ahead of Week 17 last season. Stidham started the final two games, creating a QB2 market. The Broncos gave the ex-Patriots draftee a two-year, $10M deal to back up Wilson.

Wilson ranks seventh in passer rating, throwing 26 touchdown passes compared to just eight interceptions. But the Broncos have not exactly deployed an explosive offense. Wilson’s relative bounce-back effort notwithstanding, the team remains limited through the air. Payton has restrained Wilson to a degree, and the Broncos have relied on short passes or deep shots to Courtland Sutton during their rebound from a 1-5 start. The 35-year-old passer ranks 21st in QBR, however, and new regimes are more likely to take on massive dead money associated with players brought in under previous staffs.

Technically, this is not a new regime. GM George Paton remains, but it is widely assumed Payton is calling the shots in Denver. Paton, who was in place for the Wilson extension and Nathaniel Hackett‘s one-and-done, has been linked to being on thin ice. A move to bench Wilson to protect against an injury affecting his contract status may well precede Paton exiting in 2024.

For Wilson, this represents new territory. Although he submitted a shockingly mediocre season with Hackett, the Broncos did not bench him last season. The nine-time Pro Bowler moving closer to his Seahawks form under Payton may keep the Hall of Fame in play — though, this Denver tenure does inject an interesting chapter in that regard — but this benching points to him being available in 2024. Considering this is not a tradeable contract, Wilson is most likely set to become a free agent for the first time.

Wilson’s guarantee affects his 2025 status. On Day 5 of the 2024 league year, a $37M guarantee vests if he remains on the Broncos’ roster. That number — Wilson’s 2025 salary — is guaranteed for injury only. The team looks to be choosing a 2024 without Wilson — and absorbing the seismic dead-money number referenced above — rather than giving the Payton-Wilson pairing a second try. The Broncos figure to be in the market for a new quarterback soon. The team’s recovery from its 1-5 start will make that more difficult, as its draft slot has dropped to 14th. And cutting Wilson next year will hamstring the Broncos for the next two offseasons.

If the Broncos were to go with Wilson in 2024 and designate him as a post-June 1 cut in 2025, the dead money would lessen — $18M in 2025, $31.2M in ’26 — but there is no way of spinning this. The Broncos may not have made a Herschel Walker-caliber mistake, but this trade producing an extension — one ownership helped push upon taking over in the summer of 2022 — will have longstanding ramifications for the AFC West franchise.

Should the Broncos follow through on their now-expected Wilson release in 2024, it will be interesting to see if a team would be willing to provide another starting opportunity for the ex-Seattle iron man. Wilson is the only player in NFL history with over 40,000 passing yards and 5,000 rushing yards. After being hesitant to run much under Hackett, Wilson has regularly helped the 2023 Broncos by scrambling. While it is clear Wilson is past his prime, he has played a key role in the Broncos’ surprising playoff push — one that Stidham now controls. ESPN’s FPI gives the Broncos just a 5.6% chance to qualify. They will soon begin a look toward the future.