Los Angeles' Todd Gurley got paid. Here's why other top RBs may not.

Running back Todd Gurley signed a four-year, $57 million extension with the Rams last summer, a deal that came early enough in his career that both sides probably viewed it as a win at the time. But by getting his money and then getting hurt, the 10th pick in the 2015 draft did more damage for NFL running backs than Le’Veon Bell did during his year-long standoff with the Steelers. Let me explain.

In mid-December, Los Angeles’ running back depth chart was a mess. Gurley nursed an ailing knee, backup Malcolm Brown was on injured reserve, and Justin Davis, the Rams' other option, dealt with a shoulder issue. So Los Angeles signed C.J. Anderson off the street, and he ran for 299 yards in the season’s final two games. He followed that with 123 yards rushing in a divisional-round win over Dallas. With 44 yards, he was the Rams’ leading rusher in their NFC Championship Game victory against the Saints. 

Anderson’s cost to the Rams? $92,941, per Spotrac. Now that’s bang for your buck.

Gurley played well against Dallas, rolling up 115 yards on 16 carries, but he was nonexistent afterward. The 24-year-old's line for the NFC Championship Game and Super Bowl? 14 carries, 45 yards, one touchdown, two catches for two yards. His lack of production was striking during the red-hot glare of the playoffs -– but his absence from the game plan was even more alarming. 

Diagnosed with arthritis in his left knee in the spring, Gurley now finds himself in an odd position. Despite leading the league in rushing touchdowns the past two seasons and piling up the most yards from scrimmage in 2017, he must prove he can stay healthy. If Los Angeles chooses to monitor his workload, which seems to be their intent, it raises a logical question: Is it prudent to pay a player that much money if you’re worried about overusing him?

Here's another question: How can notoriously risk-averse general managers look at the situation in L.A. and then commit significant guaranteed money to a running back on his second contract? If rookie QB Daniel Jones ends up being great in New York, and then wants to get paid top dollar, why would Giants GM Dave Gettleman risk committing a pile of money to running back Saquon Barkley on a second contract?

Dak Prescott and the Cowboys must hammer out a new deal. Assuming the quarterback cashes in, what becomes of Ezekiel Elliott, who seeks a contract extension? He has led the league in rush yards per game all three years in the NFL and can make a case that he's more valuable than Prescott. But why should Dallas commit huge money to him when there are much cheaper options available in the draft, and, like Anderson, even off the scrap heap?

In his second season, the Colts' Marlon Mack rushed for 908 yards in 2018. The fourth-round pick made less than $700,000. Alvin Kamara, the Saints' scintillating running back, had 883 yards rushing and 709 receiving last season. The third-round pick made slightly less $900,000 last season.

That brings us back to Bell. He sat out the 2018 season to preserve his body, betting that a lucrative deal flush with guaranteed money would materialize. He thought he would get an offer as good or better than Gurley’s. He gambled and lost. His four-year, $52.5 million deal with the Jets includes "just" $27 million in guaranteed money. He almost certainly would have received more had he signed long term with Pittsburgh.

If Bell stays healthy and emerges as Sam Darnold’s primary weapon, helping the young quarterback make a leap in his second year, any gripes Jets coach Adam Gase might have had about signing him may disappear. If Bell carries the Jets to the playoffs, where they haven’t been since 2010, they might throw him a parade down Broadway. 

Should that come to pass, it will be a nice redemption story for Bell. What it won’t be is a paradigm-shifting season for running backs across the league.

Todd Gurley already had that last year, just not in the way any of his brethren hoped.