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NFL divisional round: Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers betting picks, preview
The first NFC game of the weekend will be between the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers, as the latter became the first No. 7 seed to ever win a playoff game. There's most definitely betting value to be had in this one.
Green Bay Packers vs. San Francisco 49ers: Betting Odds
Saturday, Jan. 20, 2024, 8:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
Spread: San Francisco -9.5, Over/under: 50.5 points, Green Bay +340 | San Francisco -440
The Packers pulled off a surprising upset over the Dallas Cowboys in the wild-card round, taking down the Cowboys 48-32 in Dallas in a game that really wasn't as close as the score might suggest.
Jordan Love sported a nearly perfect passer rating, throwing three touchdowns, and Aaron Jones chipped in 118 yards and three scores of his own. The defense forced multiple turnovers, and suddenly the Packers look like one of the most competitive teams left in the field.
The Packers have won seven of their last nine games and while their defense does still have some issues, the offense is humming.
As for San Francisco, they are the NFC's top seed at 12-5 thanks to an elite defense and an offense loaded with stars like Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. The Niners own the third-best point differential this season, often stomping on some of the league's best teams in the process.
The 49ers are 9-8 ATS this year, while the Packers are 10-8. Both teams have favored points, with Green Bay 11-7 and San Francisco 10-7 to the over.
Betting Picks for Green Bay vs. San Francisco
Packers +9.5
Our pick here is built in a very similar vein to why we like the Texans to cover. 9.5 points is a whole lot to ask a team to cover in the postseason, especially for a team like San Francisco that has been able to rest its starters since Week 17.
Are we a prisoner of the moment to suggest that Jordan Love is growing into one of the NFC's best quarterbacks? We've been in the camp for quite some time that Brock Purdy is a fine passer in a loaded offense, so we'll go out on a limb and say Love is more talented than Purdy.
He's getting everyone involved in this Green Bay offense, and Aaron Jones has come on strong for the Packers of late.
This San Fran defense is elite, and this entire team has the vibe of someone who feels cheated from last year's postseason exit, hungry to prove they're the best in the NFL.
We won't go as far as to say the Packers win this game, but Green Bay is playing as good as anyone right now and should keep this one competitive.
Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.
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