NFL Week 10 Predictions

Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET (NFL Network)

Given the dearth of weapons on Washington's roster, Seattle's loss to them last week was a major disappointment. Previous iterations of the Seahawks rarely lost at home, especially to teams so bereft of threats. This year's group simply isn't as good, especially with a pass rush that has mostly gone by the wayside, and thus put more stress on the secondary. That said, those problems should not manifest, even on the road, against an Arizona team without Carson Palmer and David Johnson. The Cards might keep it close for a while, or even the whole game, but they haven't beaten a team with a winning record yet this season, and all of their games against opponents with .500 records or better have ended in double-digit defeats. That trend should continue.

Pick: Seahawks

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Since the Steelers have a habit of laying eggs on the road against inferior competition, there was every reason to believe that this game would loom as a trap, especially with the black and gold coming off of a bye week. Then the Colts had to go and actually win their last time out, and get very much on the Steelers' radar. Jacoby Brissett can make some plays, but Indy will be hard-pressed to stave off the Steelers' pass rush. One interesting thing to follow will be Mike Tomlin and Todd Haley's usage of Le'Veon Bell. Bell is on pace for a preposterous 458 touches, and the Steelers turn back around and face the Titans next Thursday. James Conner could finally see more significant time — so long as he can pass protect.

Pick: Steelers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

For my money, this is the best game of the week. New Orleans has won six in a row, its defense has seemingly turned it around, and Drew Brees is as dangerous as ever. A game against the Bills, in Buffalo, with a predictable western New York forecast, should be an interesting challenge. The Bills laid an egg when they had a chance to stay tied atop the AFC, and doubtless will be looking to get back to their turnover-forcing, opportunistic ways. New Orleans holds onto the ball pretty well, though they are on a run of having turned the ball over multiple times in each of their previous four games. Kelvin Benjamin will make his Buffalo debut, which should help an offense that still hasn't scored a touchdown in the first quarter all season. Fixing that futility might be of paramount importance against an offense as high-powered as New Orleans'. Tough game to call.

Pick: Bills

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

For those wondering just how much Aaron Rodgers means to the Pack, at least in terms of the way Vegas views them, look no further than this game. If Rodgers is healthy, the Packers are probably two games better in the standings, and probably around a touchdown favorite against the Bears. With Brett Hundley under center, Green Bay feels like a team with no chance. The Bears aren't good, sure, but they at least have something approaching an identity. Chicago wants to run the football with Jordan Howard, play sound defense—something they've been sneakily good at, by the way—and try to win the game while protecting Mitch Trubisky. Without Rodgers, what are the Packers all about? They aren't very good against the run, they can't pass the ball with consistent success, and the roster, specifically on defense, just isn't very good. Green Bay might keep it close, but Chicago should win.

Pick: Packers

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Detroit does three things very well. The Lions stop the run, force turnovers, and pass the ball very effectively, so long as sharp Matthew Stafford shows up. They're also in an interesting position as a team with some obvious deficiencies, but one that already has a win over division-leading Minnesota, and a soft second-half schedule, save one more meeting with the Vikes. If Stafford keeps it going and the defense does its thing, all it will take is the emergence of some kind of running threat to make Detroit truly dangerous. Cleveland? It's getting difficult to think of anything new to say about the Browns. They are very, very bad, they will continue to be very bad, and there exists the very real chance that they go 0–16 this year. Oh, and there will almost certainly be another front-office shakeup this off-season. The only news is bad news on the shores of Lake Erie.

Pick: Lions

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

A look at the Titans' schedule suggests that if the team takes care of business and wins the games it should win the rest of the way, 10–6 is possible. If they do that and score a second victory over the Jaguars, they will almost certainly win the division. Thing is, though they throttled Jacksonville back in Week 2, then beat Seattle the next week, Tennessee hasn't really been all that impressive. Jacksonville's schedule the rest of the way seems even easier, and it feels like the Jags are coming into their own, so beating Cincinnati takes on added importance for the Titans. The Bengals haven't topped 300 yards of offense in a month, they barely beat the Colts, and it just appears like this year will go down as a lost season in Cincy. Not that any of that matters to Marvin Lewis, the man with apparently the most job security this side of Bill Belichick and Mike Tomlin. The Titans should win, but it may not be by much. 

Pick: Bengals

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Jameis Winston being shut down might end up being a blessing in disguise for the Bucs. Their season was already circling the drain, and at 2–6 they're out of the playoff chase. Better for them to sink closer to the bottom of the standings, and therefore the top of the draft, and have more flexibility to bolster their roster next year. Thing is, Winston still hasn't proven to any significant degree that he's the type of quarterback that can be the cornerstone of a successful franchise. The Jets, meanwhile, were supposed to be a total laughingstock, maybe the worst team in the league, but instead find themselves 4–5 and not completely dead in the water in the AFC race. Todd Bowles' team will stay competitive and be a tough out for anyone, so long as Josh McCown stays healthy and the defense keeps forcing turnovers. There is no reason, even on the road, why they shouldn't find a way past Tampa Bay.

Pick: Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

It's doubtful that many people outside of Washington's locker room expected a win in Seattle, but they found a way, and their reward is, well, not much of a reward at all. No, they'll have to deal with a Minnesota defense that may well be the league's best, and is buttressed nicely by a solid offense at the direction of Case Keenum. Kirk Cousins is playing his way into a huge contract after this season, but if Washington doesn't find a way to get their anemic running game going to take some of the starch out of Minnesota's pass rush, Cousins might take a major beating. If the Vikings can get out to a lead early, it's hard to envision the Redskins being able to both move the ball consistently and cash in drives with enough touchdowns to keep pace. If this one starts ugly and stays ugly, Washington has a chance. The guess here is that Minnesota makes a statement to the rest of the NFC.

Pick: Vikings

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Jacksonville boasts the league's best scoring defense, its top pass defense, as well as the league's most potent running attack. Even though the NFL has been a passing league for some time now, those traits stand the test of time. If the Jags can shut down Philip Rivers, their schedule softens considerably over the next three weeks, with Cleveland, Arizona and Indianapolis on the docket. The Chargers are stingy in their own right, especially against the pass, but they are the second-worst defense in the league in rush yards allowed. Leonard Fournette and Chris Ivory might have a field day, which means another potentially easy afternoon for Blake Bortles. That has been a winning formula for the Jags this season, and it figures to continue this week. And yes, you're not dreaming, there is a very real chance that Jacksonville could be 9–3 one month from now.

Pick: Jaguars

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

Houston is rudderless without Deshaun Watson. They were good enough to go toe-to-toe on the road against New England and Seattle with him, bad enough to lose to the hapless Colts—at home, no less—without him. Now they face the Rams, in what technically is a battle between two of the three top scoring teams in the league. In reality, it could be a blowout, with Los Angeles brimming with confidence after destroying the Giants on the road last week. The Rams can't afford a stumble, with the Vikings, Saints, Eagles and Seahawks comprising four of their next five opponents after this game. Jared Goff is playing extremely well, Todd Gurley has been excellent, and Aaron Donald is as disruptive as ever. This could get very ugly for Houston.

Pick: Rams

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Ezekiel Elliott is not yet a lock to play in this one, which obviously makes predicting the outcome a much murkier exercise. If he does suit up, the Cowboys seem like a good bet to waltz into Atlanta and come out with a victory, seeing as the Falcons continue to flail. Even if he doesn't suit up, it isn't tough to envision Dallas finding a way to win anyway. Dak Prescott has been been excellent so far, and Dallas has found plenty of balance in the passing game. The Falcons could use some turnovers to help get a win, but Dallas ranks fourth in the league, having coughed up the ball only eight times all season—five of them in a two game stretch in early October. Those that are waiting for Matt Ryan and Julio Jones to carry the Falcons to an explosive breakout performance will have to keep wondering if such a thing will happen at all. 

Pick: Cowboys

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

How humiliating for the Giants to be more or less a coin flip against a winless opponent, at least in Vegas' eyes. Thing of it is, there's plenty of reason for that to be the case. New York seemed to quit at times against the Rams, especially on Robert Woods' incredible, inexcusable touchdown catch on 3rd and 33. San Francisco doesn't exactly have much impetus to win, as a victory would vault them both out of a last-place tie with the Browns, and ahead of the Giants, via tiebreaker, in the standings. C.J. Beathard will start in this one, with Jimmy Garoppolo apparently making swift progress in his efforts to learn San Francisco's playbook. Meanwhile, rumors in New York suggest that the Giants are very interested in drafting Eli Manning's replacement in this year's draft, which must be an awkward thing for Davis Webb to hear. These are two bad teams, so bet on the one that's at home.

Pick: 49ers

Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Tom Brady is 3–7 in his career in Denver. That's his worst winning percentage in any city. That said, the Broncos are starting Brock Osweiler. Yes, Denver is capable of Herculean feats on defense, but they'll have to turn in a truly epic performance to slow down the Pats. A look at Denver's last four games is truly astonishing. Double-digit loss to the Giants, shutout at the hands of the Chargers, convincing beating by the Chiefs, and total destruction by Carson Wentz and the Eagles. Unless Von Miller single-handedly terrorizes Brady all game long, the Broncos have no chance. Miller is great, but he is just one man. The collective group of men Bill Belichick will send onto the field is much, much better. If Brock Osweiler was good enough to exploit New England's atrocious pass defense, this could be a sneaky close game. He isn't, so it won't be.

Pick: Patriots

Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Is Christian McCaffrey finally showing signs of life as a runner? He had 66 yards on 15 carries in Carolina's comeback win over the Falcons last week, as well as the first rushing touchdown of his career. Cam Newton has to hope that McCaffrey's performance wasn't an anomaly. The Panthers' offense has lacked all season, but McCaffrey getting up to speed would be a huge boost in every conceivable way. There are no such worries about the Panthers' defense, which is stout in virtually every statistical category. The only area where they don't excel is in the turnover department, but it stands to reason that the Dolphins might present an opportunity to change that. Miami's defense might keep things close, but it seems like a safe bet that their offense won't reach 200 yards. The Panthers should get the win, but things might be a little tighter than Ron Rivera would prefer.

Pick: Dolphins