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NFL Week 14: Don't be fooled by historically low total on Steelers-Patriots for 'TNF'
Chargers linebacker Khalil Mack (52) sacks New England Patriots quarterback Bailey Zappe (4). David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 14: Don't be fooled by historically low total on Steelers-Patriots for 'TNF'

By Jack Dougherty  |  Last updated 12/5/23

If you love punts and sloppy quarterback play, this week's "Thursday Night Football" matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New England Patriots is right up your alley. 

The Patriots are a dumpster fire offensively right now. New England has managed to score only 13 total points over its last three games, and the offense was shut out against the Los Angeles Chargers last week in Bailey Zappe's first start of the season. Not only is Zappe expected to make his second straight start this week, but starting running back Rhamondre Stevenson will likely miss the game after suffering a high ankle sprain against the Chargers. There isn't much explosiveness left on this offense with Stevenson out of the lineup.

As for the Steelers, they'll be rolling with Mitchell Trubisky on Thursday night because starting quarterback Kenny Pickett also suffered a high ankle sprain last week. Trubisky has completed just 59.2 percent of his passes this season with two touchdowns and two interceptions, and the Steelers haven't scored more than 10 points in any of his three appearances this year. 

Add all that offensive mess together, mix in two top-11 defenses in DVOA and you get a laughably low total of 30 for "Thursday Night Football." Yes, 30! That would mark the lowest NFL total since 1993 if it holds. There's never been a total lower than 28 in NFL betting history, and this over/under has a chance to get there by Thursday night. 

But looking at the other lowest totals in league history, it might be wise to hold your breath and bet the over. 

There have been six totals of 30 or lower in NFL history. The over is 4-2 in those games, cashing by an average of 5.8 points per game (StatMuse). Of the three NFL games that closed with a total below 30, all three went over by an average of 16.7 points per game. We seem to be heading toward a total in Steelers-Patriots that begins with a two, and all three instances before this cruised over the total. 

So, do you have what it takes to click submit on an over bet in one of the lowest totals in NFL history? 

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