NFL Week 5 props: Long plays and yardage bets

The Ravens have allowed 16 passes of 20+ yards this season, tied for fourth-most, and that includes a game last week against Buffalo in the rain, which limited explosive plays. They've also allowed four plays of 40+ yards through the air, which is third-most in the NFL.

This was an issue for Baltimore last year and has remained so this season. The Bengals offense is starting to figure things out a bit the past few weeks. Burrow has a 50+ yard completion in back-to-back weeks and has thrown seven 20+ yard completions, four of which went for 40+ yards.

Higgins and Chase both went over this line last week, and it's been Higgins on the receiving end of two massive plays in two straight weeks: his long was 45 in Week 3 and 59 in Week 4. Chase hauled in a 36-yarder last week in the waning moments of last week's win over the Dolphins, and as Higgins continues to burn defenses, Chase should get more opportunities at one-on-one matchups.

I'm going for the throat and taking all of them instead of trying to pick my favorite.

Terry McLaurin over 23.5 longest reception (-110 DK)

Tennessee has been one of the best secondaries to target for long plays the past two seasons. They rank favorably in the key metrics I care about: 20+ yard passes allowed, 40+ yard passes allowed and opponent's yards per pass attempt. The Titans are getting burned weekly by receivers, and we need a piece.

With Jahan Dotson expected out, the aDOT leader on Washington is Terry McLaurin at 15.5. McLaurin was stifled last week, but it was against a tough Dallas secondary, so that can be forgiven.

He has a long of 35+ in each of the other three games this season, and this is a great opportunity for him to hit this prop once again.

Dalvin Cook over 78.5 rushing yards (-115 MGM)

Cook is over this 78.5 line in each of his last four games against Chicago, averaging 99 rushing yards per game in those contests.

This Bears run defense has been a problem. Three straight starting RBs have gone over their rushing yards total. Saquon Barkley had 146 yards last week, Dameon Pierce racked up 80 in Week 3 and Aaron Jones finished with 132 yards on the ground back in Week 2. Elijah Mitchell got 41 yards on just six carries before getting hurt early in Week 1, but he too was well on his way.

Cook has 17+ rush attempts in three of four games this season. The volume is very much there, and in a positive game-script that should have the Vikings leading for much of the game, Cook's in a good spot to go over here.

CeeDee Lamb over 61.5 receiving yards (-115 DK)

The Rams have allowed all four opposing WR1s they've faced this season to go over their receiving yards over. Last week it was Deebo Samuel (115 yards). Week 3 it was Marquise Brown (140 yards). Week 2 was Drake London (86 yards) and Week 1 was Stefon Diggs finishing with 122 yards.

It's a clear vulnerability, and one I'd like to follow. Lamb is over this 61.5 total in three straight games, averaging 86.3 receiving yards per game in this stretch. Lamb's best game yet came with Michael Gallup back in the fold, and methinks that defenses will be forced to pay more attention to Gallup, which should only help Lamb.

Matthew Stafford under 258.5 passing yards (-115 DK)

This Rams offense does not look good, and it starts and ends with the offensive line. Stafford has been sacked 16 times, tied for the second-most in the NFL, and PFF has the Rams offensive line graded out as the worst pass-protection unit in football.

In comes the Dallas defense, which has the second-strongest pass rush, according to PFF, and the second-most sacks with 15.

Ten straight quarterbacks have gone under their passing yards against this Cowboys defense , which includes some strong offenses this year in Joe Burrow and Tom Brady. Not one quarterback has even sniffed their over through four games against Dallas: Daniel Jones was the closest, 24 yards under his set line in Week 3.

Stafford is under this total in three of four games this year, and the matchup suggests another poor outing is on the way.