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Packers Free Agents Stay or Go: Allen Lazard

Originally posted on FanNation Packer Central
By Bill Huber | Last updated 2/26/23

The Green Bay Packers have 14 players who are scheduled to be unrestricted free agents this offseason, including leading receiver Allen Lazard.

Going in alphabetical order, our “Stay or Go” series will look at each of those players in advance of the official start of free agency on March 15. Why should the Packers re-sign Lazard? Why should they let him go? Is there a replacement on the roster? Could they get a compensatory draft pick in exchange?

Packers Should Re-Sign Allen Lazard

Just because Lazard didn’t play like the No. 1 receiver that Aaron Rodgers hyped him to be doesn’t mean Lazard didn’t have a good year. He led the Packers with 60 receptions for 788 yards and was second with six touchdowns.

Not surprisingly, life was tougher for Lazard as the main man than it was while playing second fiddle to Davante Adams. Lazard in 2020 caught 71.7 percent of targeted passes and averaged 9.8 yards per target. In 2021, he caught 66.7 percent of targeted passes and averaged 8.6 yards per target. With Adams playing with the Raiders in 2022, those numbers fell to 60.0 percent and 7.9 yards per target.

With the emergence of Christian Watson, Lazard would have an easier time next season.

Not to be forgotten, Green Bay’s perimeter run game was one of the best in the NFL. There weren’t many explosive runs by Aaron Jones that didn’t include No. 13 handling corners, safeties or even linebackers.

Packers Should Let Lazard Sign Elsewhere

At age 27 and with five seasons in the NFL, Lazard probably is who he is at this point.

For a possession receiver, you’d like a player with better hands. Lazard had four drops, according to Pro Football Focus. Of 80 receivers targeted at least 50 times, Lazard’s drop rate of 6.3 percent ranked 47th.

For a big receiver, you’d like a player to make more plays on 50-50 balls. But, according to PFF, his 39.1 percent success rate on contested-catch opportunities ranked 58th. He broke only three tackles, averaged 4.4 yards after the catch and moved the chains on barely half of his third- and fourth-down opportunities.

Who Would Replace Lazard?

The Packers finished the season with four 2022 draft picks on the roster. Second-rounder Christian Watson looked like an all-rookie type of player when he was healthy during the second half of the season. Fourth-rounder Romeo Doubs looked like an all-rookie type of player when he was healthy during the first half of the season. The team also has Samori Toure (their seventh-round pick) and Bo Melton (Seattle’s seventh-round pick). So, there’s strength in numbers.

Coach Matt LaFleur loves receivers who can block. Watson has shown to be a high-quality blocker, too, but if he’s going to be the new No. 1 going forward, do you really want him being a point-of-attack blocker too frequently?

Could the Packers Gain a Compensatory Draft Pick for Lazard?

Absolutely. The Packers are projected to get a fifth-round pick after losing Marquez Valdes-Scantling to the Kansas City Chiefs last offseason. Valdes-Scantling received a three-year contract worth $10 million per season. Lazard should beat that number because, A, he’s a better player and, B, it’s a weaker market of free-agent receivers.

According to Nick Korte, who knows as much as anyone about compensatory picks with his work for OverTheCap.com, a contract worth $13 million per year could push Lazard into a fourth-rounder.

The Verdict on Allen Lazard

Two things are true. One: Lazard is an invaluable part of LaFleur’s offense because he thrives in that dirty-work role. You know LaFleur wants him back. Plus, there’s the leadership perspective. Who’s going to lead the group if Lazard and Randall Cobb both leave in free agency? The receiver corps would be incredibly young.

Two: Lazard is going to get a lot of money. That’s just the reality. Whether you think he’s worth $10 million or $12 million per season is irrelevant; he’s going to get it. He’s a good player, he’s versatile, he’s in the prime of his career and the supply-and-demand dynamic is going to work in his favor.

“I think all players wish to be in this position at some point in their career,” Lazard said on SiriusXM NFL Radio this week. “Having played a good season and having the option to play wherever you truly desire, I’m definitely excited to hear and see all the teams that will be interested and to see what the best option is.”

With Green Bay’s cap problems, it’s going to be hard to keep him. Because of the finances, the Packers might be better served keeping Cobb to serve as the leader, drafting a big-guy replacement and collecting a compensatory pick for 2024.