Penguins will need to do some salary-cap navigation this offseason

After a record-breaking 15-straight playoff appearances, and a 16th seemingly a given, the Pittsburgh Penguins will head into the 2022 offseason with some difficult questions regarding their core. 

Once contracts expire, the Penguins will sit with a $51.5M cap hit, leaving $31M in space, what should feel like a comfortable number. This $51.5M cap hit includes the $8.7M cap hit of the still-elite Sidney Crosby, the $6M cap hit of star Jake Guentzel, goaltender Tristan Jarry, as well as core forward pieces Jason Zucker, Jeff Carter, and Teddy Blueger and all but one of their defensemen.

The problem for Pittsburgh rests with who is a free agent. In addition to key forwards such as Bryan Rust, the newly-acquired Rickard Rakell and breakout star Evan Rodrigues, the Penguins have Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang both hitting unrestricted free agency. 

Presently, there doesn’t appear to be much concern that Malkin or Letang want to leave Pittsburgh, or that Pittsburgh doesn’t intend to re-sign them. However, Malkin and Letang are still high-caliber assets despite their ages (Letang will be 35 to start next season and Malkin will be 36), and will be able to still command a fairly significant salary. Malkin currently holds a $9.5M cap hit, while Letang has a $7.25M cap hit.

If they were to re-sign for the same cap hits, that would cost the Penguins $16.75M in cap space, leaving them with just over $14M. Even if both take discounts to stay in Pittsburgh, the pair will still command a significant salary between the two of them. Due a raise is forward and pending UFA Bryan Rust, who has 56 points in 48 games for the Penguins this season, and 154 points in 159 games since a breakout 2019-20 season.

Rust, who is coming off a four-year, $14M contract he signed prior to 2018-19 that carries a $3.5M cap hit, would likely have to sign somewhere between Zucker’s $5.5M cap hit and Gunetzel’s $6M cap hit. 

Recent UFA contracts like Brock Nelson, Anders Lee and Kevin Hayes could realistically push Rust above that $6M number on the open market, however COVID-related issues such as the flat-cap might push Rust into a comparable group of players like Zach Hyman and Jaden Schwartz. As compared to Nelson, Lee, Hayes, Hyman, and Schwartz, Rust should slot comfortably in the $5.5-6M range.

Speculating on Malkin and Letang, if the Penguins can re-sign them on slightly discount, perhaps at $8.5M and $6M respectively, they would be left with $16.5M in cap space this offseason. If they can sign Rust at $5.75M, between Zucker and Guentzel they would then have $10.75M leftover.

Rakell is coming off a six-year, $22.8M contract which saw an annual salary of $3.8M. Despite a consistent downward trend since a career best 69 points in 77 games in 2017-18, he could still expect a modest raise from his previous salary, especially if he continues to play as well as he has for the Penguins so far with five points in seven games since the trade. A comparable contract could be the four-year, $17M contract Tyler Toffoli signed with the Montreal Canadiens last summer before his subsequent trade to the Calgary Flames.

With all of these proposed numbers, the Penguins would then have $6.5M left. Problems begin, however, with Evan Rodrigues, who is a pending UFA coming off a breakout year. The 28-year-old forward has 17 goals and 23 assists for 40 points in 70 games this season, his previous best being 29 points in 74 games in 2018-19. 

In addition to Rodrigues, the Penguins would need to re-sign backup goaltender Casey DeSmith, who has done well in his role and could expect a raise from his $1.25M cap hit this season.

There is also the matter of pending RFA forward Kasperi Kapanen, who is coming off a three-year, $9.6M contract carrying a cap hit of $3.2M. Although Kapanen has arguably not lived up to expectations, his 30 points in 68 games this season should be enough to command at least a similar salary going into next season. In an effort to alleviate some cap-issues, Pittsburgh could potentially choose to let Kapanen go.

Lastly, Pittsburgh has forward Danton Heinen hitting RFA status and veteran forward Brian Boyle becoming a UFA. Pittsburgh holds Heinen’s rights as an RFA and could re-sign him to a similar cap hit as his current $1M, while Boyle could return on the same one-year, $750K contract he signed last offseason. The 37-year-old could also choose retirement.

One option for Pittsburgh to solve some of the cap crunch could be a possible trade of Zucker. The 30-year-old forward has seen his production drop off a bit in recent years and has faced several injuries in that time. With only one more year at $5.5M, Zucker may not be difficult to move, but the Penguins will likely have to give up an asset to do so.

After looking at this Penguins’ offseason, it’s not out of the question to think that the organization could bring back the same roster it has now as long as the front office is able to do a good job of keeping salaries in-line with comparable players, and especially if they can work out somewhat lighter cap hits with Malkin and Letang. Further, letting go of Kapanen or trading Zucker could go a long way to solving some of their cap concerns. While the Penguins do have cap concerns, their problems are far from unsolvable. To maintain a comfortable cap situation, some difficult conversations may have to come first.