The biggest NHL storylines to watch in February: Could a coaching change fix the Kings?

As the gruelling NHL slate reaches a much-needed lull for the All-Star Break, teams around the league are taking stock of what they need to compete this spring and for years to come. Some franchises, like the Los Angeles Kings, need to change something drastic to keep their championship window open. For others, like the Philadelphia Flyers, success in the long run might mean surrender in the short term. Either way, the unofficial midway point brings with it plenty of storylines to monitor throughout February.

Do the Kings need a Chief?

Who would have thought in December that Los Angeles Kings bench boss Todd McLellan would have the hottest seat in the NHL by February? Then, the Kings were shutting down all comers and successfully aping the style that brought Bruce Cassidy and the Vegas Golden Knights their first Stanley Cup last spring. On New Year’s Day, L.A. trailed the Vancouver Canucks for the Pacific Division lead by just four points with three games in hand.

The Kings have exactly two wins since, the fewest in the NHL. Their league-leading five overtime losses in the meantime and a lackluster Western Conference (more on that later) have kept L.A. in the driver’s seat for the first Wildcard berth but also show that their cutting edge has gone critically dull. Factor in that the Kings are operating at a top-three level on both sides of special teams in that span, and their -16 scoring differential becomes all the more unacceptable; the even-strength play has been a disaster.

It doesn’t help McLellan’s case that there are a host of excellent coaches in the breadline. Gerard Gallant, Dean Evason, and Jay Woodcroft all orchestrated 100-point seasons in 2022-23, but GM Rob Blake’s best option to make a run this season might be Craig Berube. ‘Chief’ does not have the tactical acumen of some of his counterparts, but there isn’t a better option for a quick turnaround on the market. Berube’s heroics with the worst-to-first Blues in 2018-19 are well known, but that was already his second stint as an interim coach; he also won 42 of 79 games for the Flyers after they axed Peter Laviolette in the first month of the 2013-14 season.

Is it time for the Philadelphia Flyers to take a knee?

By occupying a playoff spot well into 2024, coach John Tortorella and his Philadelphia Flyers have blown away even the most optimistic preseason predictions. Perennial Selke-contender Sean Couturier’s return has coupled with the breakouts of blueliner Egor Zamula (15P in 40GP, +8) and goaltender Sam Ersson (12-9, 2.60 GAA) to give Philadelphia enough depth to hang tough in a surprisingly flabby Metropolitan Division. That said, not everything is sunshine and rainbows on Broad Street.

The Flyers’ 6-7 January record might seem like a run-of-the-mill hiccup, but five of those victories came consecutively, and they are now riding a five-game skid into the All-Star break. Playing chutes and ladders this deep into the season must remind Keith Jones and Danny Briere that this is a very green outfit that needs to develop consistency to go along with its relentless forecheck and dazzling play on the rush. 

It doesn’t help that the newly extended Owen Tippett (18G in 46GP), one of the team’s only legitimate offensive weapons, is out with a lower-body injury. It helps even less that franchise goalie Carter Hart is away from the team indefinitely while facing sexual assault charges along with four other 2018 Canadian world junior team members. With Hart’s future up in the air, the team cannot spell Ersson during a rough patch and suddenly finds itself taking on water defensively (5.4 GAA in last five). Now might be the time to test the market for the pending UFA second pair of Sean Walker and Nick Seeler, especially since ‘Torts’ has begun deploying newcomer Jamie Drysdale and Zamula as a classic little-big pairing. 

Do the Oilers (finally) have the right stuff?

The Oilers couldn’t feel any better as they head into their week off. Their vast defensive improvements under coach Kris Knoblauch have coincided with Connor McDavid’s return to form to make them the hottest team in the league and one of the hottest of all time: their 16-game win streak is tied for second-longest in league history. 

Since Knoblauch replaced Jay Woodcroft on Nov. 12, Edmonton has the most wins and best points percentage in the NHL. They trail only the Winnipeg Jets and Vezina-favorite Connor Hellebuyck in scoring defense during that time, 16 goals ahead of Florida in third place. Their top pair of stay-at-home vet Mattias Ekholm and offensive maverick Evan Bouchard controls over 60% of total and high-danger chances. A third-line of Dylan Holloway, Ryan McLeod, and Corey Perry should provide better depth than GM Ken Holland can typically afford against the cap. Their early struggles hide it in the standings, but this is the best team in the NHL. Why doesn’t anyone seem to care?

In short, most fans feel they have seen this movie before. McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins outscore this team’s warts, which inevitably bubble up in the postseason. Cody Ceci and Darnell Nurse lag behind Ekholm and Bouchard in every significant puck possession metric and look like a ticking timebomb waiting to go off this spring. If Stuart Skinner comes down to Earth (2.06 GAA under Knoblauch), can journeyman Cal Pickard pick up the pieces? A historic win streak isn’t enough to silence Edmonton’s doubters; they need to be this good in the postseason. 

Any takers for a Western Wild Card?

If last season’s race to the postseason was a grueling attritional war between worthy opponents, this year’s is a trainwreck that would make even the Three Stooges blush. In each of the four divisions, two or three elite front runners have pulled away from a field that has pursued them with all the grace of a blind Neanderthal. At least in the Eastern Conference, a mixture of over (Philadelphia, Detroit) and underachievers (New Jersey, Pittsburgh) could make for a compelling stretch run. In the West, self-sabotage has reigned supreme, and it’s anyone’s game as long as no one is competent enough to win it.

Prognosticators struggled all summer to decide who would claim an ostensibly loaded Pacific Division. During the first few months of the season the Kings, Golden Knights, and Canucks traded off the division’s best points percentage. After the Kings’ epic New Year’s implosion and Edmonton’s ascendance (the Oilers are 26-6 under Knoblauch), there are still three teams in charge, albeit slightly different ones. The Kraken are remarkably average and would be worse than that without goalie Joey Daccord (2.36 GAA, .920SV%), while the .500 (22-22-5) Flames project to be the biggest sellers of the trade deadline; L.A. may make the Stanley Cup playoffs by default, but that’s not because they’re doing anything right.

The Central Division is similarly top-heavy, with the Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars, and Winnipeg Jets separated by only two points but at least 11 points clear of the Wild Card. The surprisingly good Coyotes (19-14-2 on 12/31) have reverted to the predictably bumbling Coyotes (4-8-1 since). The Nashville Predators have stayed afloat thanks to a bizarrely potent top-line of Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O’Reilly, and Filip Forsberg but remain, as ever, in the murky middle. Somehow, the St. Louis Blues have pipped both for the eighth seed thanks to a five-game heater despite the most overpaid, injury-prone roster in the league. Who’s making the postseason from this riff-raff, and do they have any hope of knocking off the mighty Avalanche or soaring Canucks in a first-round upset? Probably not.

The Hurricanes won’t get a better chance to escape the East

The Carolina Hurricanes’ pursuit of the New York Rangers atop the Metropolitan Division has been like everything else during the Rod Brind’Amour era: quiet, efficient, and relentless. As the Broadway Blueshirts have hit peaks and valleys, the Canes have chugged on, forechecking their way into second place. They are a win away from overtaking their recent rivals with a game in hand, but their sights are set higher than a fourth-straight division crown; Carolina wants it all, and they won’t have a better shot at taking the East.

Typically dominant at out-chancing their opponents, they face even fewer shots per game than their league-low 26 per game from last season with an absurdly loaded blueline that deploys Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield on its bottom pair. Their offense has also improved, and the Hurricanes are outscoring their 2022-23 vintage by nine goals through as many games despite the feeling Martin Necas is due for a breakout (13G, 31P in 43GP). With Sebastian Aho scoring at a career-best 98-point pace, the tired argument that the Canes have no stars doesn’t work either.

Goaltending has kept this team out of first (it won’t for much longer), but GM Don Waddell shouldn’t sit on his hands now that Spencer Martin is on board. Even with horrid netminding (veteran Antti Raanta sits at .870), the Hurricanes are 10th in scoring defense. What could they achieve with Marc-Andre Fleury in goal, let alone Juuse Saros? Waddle signed two top two free agents in Orlov and Michael Bunting (10G, 31P in 47GP) last summer. He shouldn’t stop being aggressive as long as the ultimate prize is within reach, especially given that long-time servants Brett Pesce and Teuvo Teravainen are likely playing their last seasons in Raleigh.