Why Sergei Gonchar is the Hockey Hall of Fame’s most overlooked defenseman

The High Noon Card

High Noon rankings are the equivalent of the world golf or tennis rankings — only for hockey. A player’s High Noon answers the question: “Where did they rank at their best in the NHL at their position?”

A calm and controlled player and personality, it’s often thought Gonchar couldn’t hang with the league’s best. High Noon dismisses the idea entirely.

• Want durability? Gonchar remained a top-20 NHL defenseman for 14 straight years. Every blueliner with 13+ seasons in the top 20 is in the HHOF.
• Want consistently elite play? Gonchar stayed around the top 10 for a decade. Nine or more such seasons has a 100% HHOF induction rate, post-expansion.
• Want all-world status? Gonchar had a cameo as the #1 defenseman in the NHL. Since 1950, only Mike Green hit #1 in High Noon yet remains outside the Hall among eligible D-men.
  

The PPS Card

The Pidutti Point Share (PPS) system measures a player’s HHOF worthiness in a single comprehensive number. A player’s PPS score is tiered based on the HHOF standard for their position and era.

After five years of Gonchar waiting in the cold for a Hall call, the PPS system is offering him hot cocoa and a chunky sweater. His PPS is 298, good for a stunning 22nd all-time, a generous +24 above the modern positional standard. Let’s weave into his two-decade NHL run and see what all the fuss is about.

Of the 25 post-expansion HHOF defensemen, his Career score of 92 is middle-of-the-pack — tied with legend Scott Niedermayer. By Pace score (84), Gonchar is 18th, i.e., Scott Stevens territory. Keep your head up, Sergei! His Peak score (103) is solidly in 16th place, edging Borje Salming and Larry Murphy at 101.

The major caveat when it comes to HHOF defensemen is that the Selection Committee has elected very few of them. Forwards outnumber defensemen 61-25 among post-expansion skaters. Based on their on-ice split, it should be more like 52-34, leaving a nine-skater imbalance. So, Gonchar ranking cozily among his elected peers makes the case instantly credible.

When it comes to bonuses, Gonchar has some juice. He logged serious minutes on three Cup finalists, including the 2009 champion Penguins, owing the 20th-most playoff points at the position. That’s a +15 bonus for post-season work. With both Olympic silver and bronze, that’s +5 for international best-on-best play. Despite playing behind Lidstrom, Niedermayer, and Chris Pronger, among others, Gonchar snags +6 for award bonus, which included consecutive finishes of 5th, 6th, 4th, and 4th in Norris balloting.

The Comparisons

Who a player profiles most similarly to statistically is revealing as it removes any influence from reputation or playing style. Using career length, adjusted scoring, and the core factors of PPS, a player’s top five matches are presented. 1,000 is a perfect match.

Playing matchmaker with Gonchar shows him to be a unicorn. He profiles statistically similar to four players far back of him in PPS, and one player (Niedermayer) out of his league.

His closest twin is fellow offensive dynamo Burns. Yet, despite a Norris Trophy, $8-million salary, and an excellent HHOF case in his own right, Burns is a poor man’s Gonchar. Both power play specialists deserve a spot one day. Respectfully, Class of 2014 member Blake, longtime fringe candidate Suter, and the highly underrated Schneider are each a refreshing bottle of Gonchar Lite when it comes to HHOF cases. Niedermayer’s regular season career is surprisingly a match, but an overflowing trophy case with a Norris, Smythe, two Olympic golds, and four Cups greatly separate the pair when it comes to legacy.

The Answer ⚖️

Has the Hockey Hall of Fame overlooked a generation?

A simple exercise to illustrate the gap in NHL skater inductees goes like this:

• HHOF skaters debuting in the 1970s (24): 16 forwards, 8 defensemen
• HHOF skaters debuting in the 1980s (31): 23 forwards, 8 defensemen
• HHOF skaters debuting in the 1990s (15): 11 forwards, 4 defensemen
  

Now, hold up. The HHOF is not done electing players that debuted in the 1990s, you might say. Absolutely, they could elect these players for decades. But it doesn’t seem likely. For forwards, you’ve got Jaromir Jagr (in 2047 when he finally retires) and Joe Thornton as the only ’90s locks. Perhaps a few of John LeClair, Peter Bondra, Keith Tkachuk, Patrik Elias, or Patrick Marleau eventually get in. For defensemen debuting in the 1990s, there’s Zdeno Chara and our headliner Gonchar. So, maybe, 16 forwards and six defensemen debuting in the 1990s wind up elected.

So, what happened?

Scoring numbers shrunk, but instead of recalibrating, the Hall kept electing skaters from the 1970s and 1980s with superficial stat lines. These were not all-world players, but they hit arbitrary scoring marks from well-timed careers. You can see how this might happen focusing solely on career totals and milestones. The Hall likely should have pivoted and focused on goaltenders, defensemen, or simply elected fewer forwards per cycle. But in the end, we’re left with an oversaturated generation that played in the Red Light District of offense… and a subsequent “Dead Puck Era” generation that were perceived not to measure up.

When we scan the players passed over by the HHOF with the greatest era adjusted paces (minimum 800 games), there is a clear trend.

Every player above debuted in 1987 or later. 

Bondra, for example, averages 40 goals a year in a neutral era. There are only five post-expansion HHOF players who best him. While he didn’t play nearly as long, he’s tied with Wayne Freakin’ Gretzky in neutral goal scoring pace. But because of the time he played in, he has “only” 503 goals and is just short of 900 points on paper.

Now, these aren’t all HHOF level players above — not by PPS or the eye test. But it’s mind-boggling that there isn’t one forward that debuted before 1987 left out there that the Committee should be considering.

So, to answer the question, it’s not that the HHOF has overlooked a generation just yet. But rather the generation debuting in the 1980s is wildly overrepresented. If making a case for a forward that debuted before 1987, you could easily find a dozen more deserving recent players.

The Verdict

No one will confuse Gonchar with Chara on the defensive side. But that’s true of the bulk of modern HHOF defenders. To appreciate the depth of Gonchar’s production, here are some of his offensive feats, adjusted to era:

• Scored at a 30-goal(!) pace on two occasions
• Scored at a 60-point pace for nine consecutive years
• Led all NHL defensemen in point scoring twice
  

To put Gonchar’s career in context, we’ll reveal the modern PPS leaders among eligible HHOF defensemen. These are the players most deserving of a chance to visit their tailor for a November 2023 tuxedo fitting ahead of induction weekend.

Gonchar stands alone, towering above the standard.

If you’re thinking Eric Desjardins isn’t near HHOF level, it’s important to remember the era he played in. Yet, Desjardins was a two-time year-end all-star who earned Norris votes seven times. The Dead Puck Era has greatly skewed HHOF perception. Blinded by that blaring red goal light of the 1970s and 1980s, the HHOF added a cavalry of Baby Boomers. The players that followed continue to be shortchanged in comparison.

The Selection Committee electing Sergei Gonchar this year would represent a greatly underappreciated generation of talent.