2023 Women's World Cup preview, odds: Netherlands lead dark horses

Jonker’s secret? Young star Esmee Brugts, a teenaged striker who came up through the boys’ teams as a child. He’s taken to sinking Brugts deep in his lineup to serve as a fast-moving wingback; she causes mayhem on the flanks due to her speed and her relentless eye for the goal. With Vivanne Miedema, the biggest star and best goalscorer on this Dutch team, missing with World Cup due to injury, Jonkers will need Brugts to both score goals and supply assists to make up the deficit.

While the Dutch struggled at the women’s European Championships last summer, getting knocked out in the quarterfinals by a tenacious France, the team has real championship pedigree. It qualified for this World Cup without losing a single match and can beat just about anyone on its day. However, the Dutch are facing a truly horrendous draw: the team will face the USA in the group stages and will likely come up against championship contenders Sweden in the Round of 16.

Japan

Coach: Futoshi Ikeda

Player to Watch: Hina Sugita

Biggest Honor: World Cup Champions (2011)

Odds to Win: +3400

The global soccer press learned the hard way in 2011 that it’s never wise to bet against the Japanese women. They took home the World Cup trophy that year in fine style, beating powerhouses Germany, Sweden and the United States along the way. While things haven’t been quite so rosy for the Japanese since that shock victory, there’s reason to believe that this 2023 squad could bring Japan back to the upper echelon of the world game.

Coach Futoshi Ikeda made some controversial decisions in the run-up to the World Cup; he dropped star Mana Iwabuchi because he didn’t feel like she fit into his wider vision for the squad. But that’s a great sign for this growing Japanese team. Stronger collectives always outplay strong individuals in marathon tournaments like the World Cup … and Japan has plenty of talent to draw upon in her place, including Portland Thorns fan favorite Hina Sugita.

Where the Dutch face a difficult draw, the Japanese face a workable one. They’ll likely advance from a group featuring Zambia, Costa Rica and Spain, and could even finish in first if the fractured Spain squad is unable to gel. From there Japan will take on Switzerland or Norway, two teams it is capable of beating. More difficult matches await further on in the knockout rounds, but if Japan can build confidence with each step, they just might party like it’s 2011 all over again.

Norway

Coach: Hege Riise

Player to Watch: Ada Hegerberg

Biggest Honor: World Cup Champions (1995)

Odds to Win: +5000

International soccer teams tend to find their true footing in the wake of disastrous tournament results — they often need that shock to find out what’s wrong with the current system and what needs to change. For Norway, that shock came in last summer’s European Championships, where it lost 8-0 to eventual champions England and summarily fired much of its coaching staff. These days Norway calls itself the “new Norway” and is focused on defensive solidity over attacking prowess, and that change has done wonders for its 2023 World Cup run.

Norway qualified unbeaten for this World Cup despite missing several of its biggest stars due to injury. Most of those stars, including forward Ada Hegerberg, have since returned, and accordingly the Norway we will see at the World Cup looks different — and much stronger — than the Norway of qualifying. The team finds itself in a relatively easy group, with just Switzerland realistically threatening it for the top spot, and its expected knockout opponents Japan or Spain are both beatable, too.

Much of Norway’s new defensive identity rests on the shoulders of Guro Reiten and Maren Mjelde. They helped lead Chelsea FC to Premier League and Champions League victory this season and are eminently capable of breaking down opposition attacks. Reiten summed up her and Norway’s brick wall ethos perfectly: “We’re difficult and annoying to play against…just like we want to be.”

Denmark

Coach: Lars Søndergaard

Player to Watch: Pernille Harder

Biggest Honor: European Runners-Up (2017)

Odds to Win: +8000

When people think of women’s soccer stars, a few big names come to mind: Marta. Morgan. Kerr. Rapinoe. Putellas. Right there in the conversation, especially for European fans, is Pernille Harder. She’s one of the brightest lights in the European game and is Denmark’s top scorer in history. North American fans often know little of her, given that Denmark have failed to qualify for a World Cup since 2007, but that’s about to change in a big way. 2023 is Harder's — and Denmark’s — time to shine.

Denmark breezed through qualifying, winning every single one of its games and outscoring its opponents 40-2. Its style is possession-based and intricate, requiring skill and depth in midfield; thankfully, Denmark has both in spades. (Just look at Sofe Junge Pederson, a middle-of-the-park veteran playing for Juventus, or young Josefine Hasbo, who’s lighting up the Ivy League playing for the Harvard Crimson.) In a World Cup marred by unfortunate injuries, Denmark — perhaps surprisingly— boasts one of the most dynamic and complete midfields of any team involved.

While Denmark is unlikely to go all the way this year, there’s a feeling in Scandinavia and beyond that it may surprise a lot of people. Its biggest test happens to come first, in the group stages. Denmark must beat both Haiti (an underrated side with impressive attacking chops) and China (a competent and genuinely threatening team) to escape with expected group winners England. If Denmark can survive those two challenges, anything is possible for it in the knockout rounds.

Italy

Coach: Milena Bertolini

Player to Watch: Giulia Dragoni

Biggest Honor: European Runners-Up (1993, 1997)

Odds to Win: +10000

It’s an honor to play for your country, but many players (and fans) are quick to admit that national teams aren’t usually as good as club teams. Why? Because they only come together a few times a year, meaning they have significantly less time to practice, bond and gel. If a national team can pick players who come from the same club—and therefore know each other well in advance—it has a significant leg up on its competition.

Enter the Italian women in 2023. Most of this talented team hails from just two clubs: Roma and Juventus. Players like Manuela Giugliano and Valentina Giacinti would be dangerous for Italy in any capacity, but the fact that they’re already Roma teammates and know each other well makes them a terrifying threat. Not many are talking about Italy in advance of this World Cup, but the team is stacked — and everyone involved knows how to get the best from one another.

Italy finds itself in a group with championship contenders Sweden, and that means it’s fighting for second place. Thankfully, with just Argentina and South Africa to contend with, second place should be doable. From there, the Italians will likely face the United States in the Round of 16 … and all their pre-existing relationships will be tested in a big way. If they connect like they’re capable of doing, they just might run a disjointed and injured U.S. team to its limit.