Premier League futures: Checking in on the title challengers at mid-season

But there’s a saving grace for Arsenal: the January transfer window. The Gunners have struggled with putting away goalscoring chances this season (Arsenal’s top scorer, 22-year-old Bukayo Saka, has scored half as many goals as Bournemouth’s Dominic Solanke) and the transfer window offers an opportunity to fix that problem. If Arsenal can snatch up a proven goalscorer — it’s rumored to be interested in suspended Brentford striker Ivan Toney — it could revamp its season and charge back up the table once again. If Arsenal fails to pick up a strong striker, though, it may well be doomed to another "not quite" season.

While we’re not as negative on the team as most Arsenal fans seem to be, we’re not expecting it to win the league without that January intervention. We’d suggest holding on any long-term Arsenal bets until after the January transfer window has closed — that’s when the team’s true potential will become visible.

Aston Villa (+2500 to win the league) —  Everybody likes a Cinderella story, especially when the Cinderella in question is a rugged, impish, eminently lovable also-ran pulling itself together under a transformational leader. Aston Villa in 2023 is like Ralph Macchio in the Karate Kid, with Spanish coach Unai Emery serving as its Mr. Miyagi. Very little has changed about this Villa side — it’s weaker than it used to be after losing defender Tyrone Mings and attacker Emi Buendia to long-term injuries — but it’s somehow performing lightyears better than it did a few years ago under less talented coaches like Steven Gerrard. While this Premier League season has been incredible for Villa fans, most would probably agree that their true highlight of 2023 was watching Gerrard flounder through a justified 10-game winless run with new club Al-Ettifaq in the mire of the Saudi League. It just goes to show it was his fault all along.

No one, not even Aston Villa itself, is expecting the club to pull a 2016 Leicester and win the league out of nowhere. We couldn’t encourage you to bet on it in good conscience. But the ride is far from over for this plucky club, and there’s more than just the title to consider when betting long on Villa. It’s at -138 to finish the season in the top four, and that looks like a reasonably tasty bet — it’s something the club hasn’t managed in decades, and it’d be wonderful to watch Villa return to the Champions League in 2024-25 after last winning it in 1982.

Liverpool (+250 to win the league) — In a season of confounding teams, Liverpool is perhaps the most confounding of all. (Just kidding, that’s Wolves. Don’t even ask us what’s going on there, we’ve got no idea.) But seriously: Liverpool is somehow the most likely title contender and the most far-fetched, the most consistent and the least predictable. It went on a three-game win streak in early December but every single one of those wins was decided in the 88^th minute or later. Liverpool is like a geode: it’s hard to see just how beautiful it is until you put it under pressure and smack it around with a hammer.

Liverpool’s chaotic consistency has made it a must-watch team this season; it’s pulled out just about every crucial victory that was required but it’s done so while teetering right on the edge of oblivion. The question is simple: can Liverpool walk that line past a Man City side that always seems to come good in the second half of the season? 

We think it’s entirely possible. Liverpool’s new-look midfield has come together gorgeously in 2023, with Endo, Szoboszlai, Gravenberch, and Mac Allister looking like a championship-worthy partnership. (It remains hilarious that nearly all of them were last-resort buys after Chelsea snatched up Caicedo and Lavia for huge sums.) Liverpool has proven itself over the years to be the only team capable of challenging Guardiola’s Man City; we’d love to see that challenge continue.

Man City (-150 to win the league) — Watching Man City draw three games in a row — against Chelsea, Liverpool, and Spurs — and then lose to a gloriously defiant Aston Villa just felt wrong. It felt like something had glitched and City had been sent down Arsenal’s path instead. City doesn’t slip up and bottle games against its fellow title challengers. It pushes through and gets the job done. When City failed to beat a single one of them in 2023, it felt downright chilling.

However. City is third in the table right now, just two points behind Liverpool and Aston Villa, and it has an epic trick up its sleeve: the late-season turnaround. Fans will remember that Arsenal was running away with the Premier League title at this point last season, only for City to execute a near-perfect run in the spring that saw it snatch not only the Premier League but also the FA Cup and Champions League in turn. But City has already spent the year failing to do everything it’s known for, you may say. Couldn’t this late-season turnaround fail too?

Yes, but it’s unlikely, and we can sum up why in three words: Kevin De Bruyne. 

The Belgian midfield metronome exited City’s opening Premier League game with an aggravated injury from last season that hadn’t quite healed, and he’s been missing in action for the rest of the year. He’s City’s most important player and his presence makes a massive difference — even if he’s not quite fighting fit. De Bruyne should return soon to add some rhythm and bite to City’s midfield, and once he does, things should settle down a bit for the Citizens. They are the most likely squad to win the title for a reason.

And one more, just for fun:

Tottenham Hotspur (+3300 to win the league) — No one’s talking about Spurs as a genuine title challenger this year, but the stats don’t lie: it’s just one point off of Arsenal in fourth and has every chance of breaking back into the top four. Watching Spurs this year has been like watching a parched perennial come back to life: it’s gone from hunched and depressed under Antonio Conte to proud, loud, and undeniably alive under Ange Postecoglou. No one is more emblematic of that change than Brazilian striker Richarlison, whose recent purple patch is the stuff of feel-good films.

We don’t think Spurs will win the title, but we do think there’s a chance they could knock someone like Arsenal out of the top four. They’re currently at +120 to secure a Champions League space — those are good odds for a team as confident as Spurs.