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Premier League Game of the Week: Man City-West Ham is not the top-four clash we expected
It's been two long weeks since our last Premier League Match of the Week — two weeks since Arsenal and Man United did us a solid by delivering on our predictions in grand style. And while this week’s game — Man City vs. West Ham, Saturday at 10 a.m. ET — isn’t the heated, historical rivalry that Arsenal-Man United was, it should still bring plenty of intrigue (and goals) to the table.
Enter West Ham United. The Premier League isn’t a tournament, but if it were, these guys would be the bracket busters; they’ve spent the first four weeks of the season making the press look silly for doubting them. West Ham had a rough year in 2022-23, one that saw them finish in a disappointing 14th place, and many thought that 2023-24 would bring more struggle. But smart purchases like Mohammed Kudus and James Ward-Prowse, coupled with frustratingly brilliant defensive gameplay, have flipped the script for the Hammers. They’re undefeated in the league this season and sitting pretty in fourth place.
While West Ham has been excellent, though, Manchester City has been literally perfect. The Citizens have won all four of their games by an aggregate score of 9-2. They’ve managed that without the help of playmaker Kevin De Bruyne, who hobbled off injured during the first game of the season, and they’ve even managed to win the last two without coach Pep Guardiola (he was recovering at home from surgery and unable to attend the games.)
West Ham-Man City is a top-four clash, albeit not the top-four clash we might’ve expected before the season began. It’s a matchup of two wildly different teams, one perfectly content to sacrifice possession and strike on the counter, one hell-bent on holding the ball for as long as humanly possible. The only thing these sides share is mutual confusion about what to do with Lucas Paquetà, the West Ham forward whose transfer to City fell through after allegations of illegal betting.
With three important points on the line and two different styles at play, this game has plenty of bets to consider. These are the ones we’re highest on.
Result
We think Man City will continue their perfect run and win this one —West Ham haven’t beaten City in 15 straight attempts. (Ouch.) But we don’t think victory will come easy for the Citizens. West Ham are a glorious defensive side, one that can capture less than 20% of possession but still manage to score from the one solid attempt it gets. At +187, a City win with at least one West Ham goal feels like a smart choice here.
Player assists
West Ham bought James Ward-Prowse from Southampton for a reason: to laser free kicks into the box like nobody’s business. He’s got one of the best right foots in the league and is feared all over the country for his pinpoint accuracy in dead ball situations. While we’re due for a Ward-Prowse screamer into the far corner, betting on a Ward-Prowse assist instead — at +450 — feels like a solid option.
Goalscorer
Man City’s Erling Haaland has perfectly repeated his stats from last year: two goals on opening day, no goals during game two, two goals during game three and a scene-stealing hat trick in game four. What did he do last season in game five, you ask? Another hat trick. While we think West Ham’s defense is unlikely to allow Haaland through three times this weekend, we do think he’ll find his way through eventually. Betting on Haaland to score anytime isn’t worth the payout; betting on Haaland to score first is a steal at +225.
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